2025’s capital expenditure surge sets stage for potential global growth acceleration in 2026

Investing.com reported that 2025 has been “the year of capex,” and investors are now watching closely to see whether that investment wave will feed through into activity and earnings in 2026. “As we enter 2026, AI is reshaping the global economy, driving trillions in investment, and transforming industries,” analysts led by Jennifer Cardilli wrote, noting that easier financial conditions are reinforcing the backdrop for growth.

The surge in corporate and public spending on AI and supporting infrastructure this year has been broad-based and large enough that many forecasters now treat it as a material upside risk to next year’s growth. Industry data show global IT spending is on track to reach a 30-year high by the end of 2025, with IDC projecting a 14% rise that would push total IT outlays to about $4.25 trillion, and broader ICT spending close to $7 trillion. Major banks and asset managers report similar patterns: JPMorgan notes that large U.S. tech firms have lifted annual capex from roughly $150 billion in 2023 to over $500 billion in 2026, while Bank of America Global Research says AI-related spending contributed more to U.S. GDP growth in 2025 than consumer spending.

Sovereign and coordinated initiatives are amplifying private-sector momentum. According to JPMorgan, programmes such as the U.S. Stargate project and Europe’s InvestAI are adding hundreds of billions to the global AI push, and UBS estimates cumulative global AI capex of $4.7 trillion between 2026 and 2030, with $2.4 trillion already planned from public disclosures in 2025. Capital Group’s 2026 outlook highlights that reshoring and supply‑chain reconfiguration tied to AI and security concerns are further encouraging investment decisions.

Those flows have influenced central-bank expectations. Barclays, whose analysts were cited in the Investing.com piece, continue to anticipate an easing cycle in the United States, pencilling in two 25 basis point Fed cuts in 2026 and another in 2027, even as they nudged their end‑2026 CPI forecast slightly higher to 2.9% amid worries about data quality. In Europe, Barclays expects the ECB to remain on hold for much of the forecast horizon, while the Bank of England is seen as likely to deliver a cautious additional rate cut in March 2026 following a hawkish reduction late in 2025.

Not all forecasts are uniformly upbeat. The International Monetary Fund’s World Economic Outlook projected a modest slowdown in headline global growth, from 3.3% in 2024 to 3.2% in 2025 and 3.1% in 2026, while noting a fourth-quarter-to-fourth-quarter recovery to 3.3% in 2026. The IMF emphasised that the outlook remains below the pre‑pandemic average and that lingering trade tensions and tariffs have a durable drag on activity.

Forecasters also diverge on the geography and timing of the payoff from capex. Barclays flags institutional and governance constraints that could limit Europe’s ability to translate investment into productivity gains, while UBS and other research point to the scale of compute, cloud and physical-AI needs, UBS projects agentic-AI could drive compute demand to five times today’s installed base by 2030, as underpinning a multi‑year demand impulse. Bank of America is notably optimistic, forecasting stronger‑than‑expected growth in 2026 driven by AI investment and policy shifts, and sees emerging markets benefiting from a weaker dollar, lower rates and low oil prices.

China remains a key uncertainty. Barclays retains a below‑consensus 4% growth forecast for 2026, with exports, particularly of AI‑related components, still important. That judgement matters because a slower Chinese cycle would blunt the global capex multiplier, while stronger Chinese investment or demand could materially lift global outcomes.

Analysts and strategists stress that the scale of spending is only part of the story; returns on those investments will determine whether capex translates into durable growth and higher corporate earnings. UBS cautions that the success of AI‑linked investments depends on companies delivering attractive returns, and Capital Group warns that geopolitical frictions could yet tip supply‑chain adjustments from orderly reshoring into disruptive realignments.

In sum, the unprecedented wave of 2025 capex has materially raised upside growth potential for 2026, but the balance of risks is mixed. Optimistic private‑sector and industry estimates portray a substantial and sustained investment cycle led by AI and cloud infrastructure that could lift growth and corporate profits. At the same time, multilateral institutions and some regional forecasters underscore slower baseline growth, policy differences across central banks and the geopolitical and governance constraints that could mute the payoff from spending. How quickly and effectively firms and governments convert the capex boom into productivity gains will determine whether 2026 becomes the year the investment cycle finally tips the global economy onto a faster growth path.