2026 FIFA World Cup faces economic headwinds amid Middle East conflict and soaring oil prices

The 2026 FIFA World Cup is being billed as a potential economic windfall, with BofA Securities forecasting about $80.1 billion in global output and $40.9 billion in GDP, alongside the creation of roughly 824,000 jobs. But that upbeat outlook is colliding with a far harsher backdrop: the war in West Asia that erupted in February 2026 has driven oil prices sharply higher, rattled financial markets and revived fears that the tournament’s broader boost could be trimmed by inflation and slower global growth.

According to the US Energy Information Administration, Brent crude jumped from about $61 a barrel to $118 after military action on February 28 and the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz, the chokepoint through which a large share of the world’s oil moves. The EIA said the surge was the largest inflation-adjusted price increase since 1988. The World Bank has since warned that energy prices could rise 24% in 2026, with attacks on infrastructure and shipping disruptions cutting global oil supply by around 10 million barrels a day.

That matters for the World Cup because the event’s economic value depends not just on ticket sales and tourism, but on the wider health of consumer spending, travel, media and hospitality. BofA’s projection assumes a surge in activity across the United States, Mexico and Canada, the three host nations for what will be the largest World Cup yet. The bank expects 104 matches in 16 host cities to draw millions of visitors and support spending on airlines, restaurants, sportswear and broadcasting.

Yet there are reasons to temper the optimism. Gita Gopinath, the former IMF chief economist, has warned that sustained oil prices at elevated levels could shave 0.3 to 0.4 percentage points off global growth and add 60 basis points to inflation if Brent averages $85 a barrel in 2026. Central banks, already cautious about easing policy, could delay interest rate cuts if energy-driven inflation persists.

The betting market is also in focus. The 2018 World Cup in Russia generated an estimated $159.7 billion in global wagering turnover, and analysts expect 2026 to set a new record, particularly in the US, where total bets could reach $5.9 billion. But some gaming executives are watching prediction markets closely, arguing that new rivals and market saturation may erode regulated betting revenue. A more volatile geopolitical climate could also encourage informal gambling activity outside licensed channels.

Still, the promised economic payoff should not be taken for granted. Academic studies on mega-events have often found that projected gains are overstated, while the costs of hosting can be substantial and long-lasting. Security, logistics and infrastructure outlays can run into billions, and host cities are sometimes left with debt or underused venues after the final whistle.

The broader issue is that the World Cup is arriving at a moment when the world economy is already under strain. While BofA’s latest global research has pointed to stronger-than-expected growth in 2026, other institutions are more cautious. J.P. Morgan has forecast Brent averaging about $60 a barrel next year on the basis of softer supply-demand fundamentals, though it notes that persistent supply disruptions appear unlikely. The World Bank, by contrast, sees commodity prices falling overall in 2026, but says the Middle East conflict is a major exception.

For the tournament’s organisers and the host countries, that leaves a simple but uncomfortable reality: the World Cup may still deliver a major commercial boost, but its scale will depend heavily on whether geopolitics, energy markets and inflation calm down enough to let the sporting spectacle dominate the economic story.