Despite a record-breaking rise in deal values driven by megadeals, midmarket activity remains subdued. Deloitte’s preview signals a challenging yet opportunistic landscape for CFOs navigating 2026, with high-value transactions supported by favourable financing conditions amid macroeconomic uncertainties.
The M&A market closed 2025 with a paradox: a sharp surge in aggregate deal value driven by megadeals, alongside broadly flat deal volume that left midmarket activity muted. According to an early preview of Deloitte’s 2026 M&A Trends Survey, announced U.S. deal value reached $598 billion in the third quarter , a 56% jump from the prior quarter and the highest level in almost four years , even as the number of transactions showed little movement. The result is a split landscape that chief financial officers will need to navigate closely as 2026 begins.
Industry data shows the rebound in value has been concentrated in very large strategic and sponsor-backed transactions. Deloitte’s respondents included a substantial share of private equity professionals, whose rising confidence appears to have helped power the renewed momentum in high‑value deals. At the same time, Deloitte warns that midmarket activity has remained sluggish, creating potential opportunities for buyers willing to pursue bolt‑ons and smaller tuck‑ins that have yet to benefit from the megadeal rebound.
Other market observers paint a broadly consistent picture, but emphasise slightly different drivers. Reuters coverage of comments made at the Reuters NEXT conference notes an unusual number of megadeals in 2025, with transactions over $10 billion totalling roughly $1.3 trillion and spanning sectors such as rail, data centres and gaming. Bank executives and deal advisers at the conference also pointed to a large pipeline of deals awaiting funding and to corporate strategies aimed at “future‑proofing” through technology and scale , trends that are likely to sustain high‑value activity into 2026.
Capital markets and financing dynamics help explain the divergence between value and volume. Two Federal Reserve rate cuts in September and October improved financing conditions, while equity markets posted strong gains through mid‑November, supporting valuations. At the same time, reports from major banks indicate sharply rising capital needs among large tech firms as they race to build AI‑ready infrastructure, which is expected to boost corporate debt issuance and undergird large transformative transactions next year. Morgan Stanley and Barclays executives highlighted both a hefty M&A backlog and renewed appetite for debt financing to support AI investments and consolidation.
Yet the backdrop is not uniformly benign. Deloitte’s preview cautions that inflation has ticked up recently and unemployment has risen, complicating the Fed’s policy balancing act and introducing macro risk. Reuters reporting from conference speakers also noted credit‑market stress in pockets of private credit following notable bankruptcies, even as most bankers described those issues as non‑systemic. Tariff uncertainty and supply‑chain frictions continue to cloud pricing and due diligence, prompting CFOs to revisit hurdle rates, run more scenario testing and add protective deal structuring.
Forecasts from advisory firms suggest the pattern could persist: EY‑Parthenon’s Deal Barometer anticipates continued growth in deal volume in 2026, with an increased share of high‑value, transformative transactions driven by AI and next‑generation technology acquisitions. Other studies show global M&A value climbed sharply in 2025 even where deal counts lagged, underscoring the same two‑speed dynamic between megadeals and the broader midmarket.
For CFOs planning for 2026 the message is pragmatic: prepare for a market with significant capital and strategic impetus for large transactions, but do not assume the midmarket will automatically follow. According to the original Deloitte preview, most dealmakers expect modest increases in deal count and value next year rather than a return to rapid expansion. That suggests the competitive set will be uneven , premium pricing and intense competition for coveted assets at the top end, with selective opportunities for disciplined buyers in the mid and lower tiers who can move quickly and structure protections against macro and financing volatility.
- https://www.cfo.com/news/deal-value-surge-2026-cfo-split-m-and-a-mergers-acquisition-market-deloitte-2026-trends-report/806613/ – Please view link – unable to able to access data
- https://www.reuters.com/sustainability/sustainable-finance-reporting/mizuhos-katz-sees-fertile-conditions-driving-robust-ma-market-into-2026-2025-12-03/ – Michal Katz, Head of Investment and Corporate Banking at Mizuho Americas, forecasts a strong M&A market extending into 2026, driven by favorable conditions such as CEO strategies for scale and the divestment of aging assets by private equity firms. Speaking at the Reuters NEXT conference, Katz noted a surge in megadeals exceeding $10 billion in 2025, totaling $1.3 trillion, including notable transactions in the rail, data center, and gaming sectors, such as the $55 billion take-private of Electronic Arts. Katz attributes the ongoing M&A momentum to pent-up demand and corporate efforts to “future-proof” amid disruptive technologies like artificial intelligence. She also anticipates an increase in mid-sized deals under $10 billion, benefiting private equity activity. Shareholder activism hit record levels in 2025, pushing for strategic exits and expanding M&A beyond the tech sector into healthcare, with major acquisitions by Pfizer, Abbott, Thermo Fisher, and Novartis. Despite challenges in private credit markets, such as bankruptcies, Katz described the issues as non-systemic but acknowledged growing scrutiny in lending practices. Overall, the outlook for dealmaking remains optimistic going into 2026.
- https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/barclays-exec-says-top-five-tech-firms-could-need-100-bln-funding-next-year-2025-12-03/ – Major technology firms are expected to significantly increase their debt issuance in 2026 to finance growing investments in artificial intelligence (AI) infrastructure and mergers and acquisitions (M&A), according to bank executives at the Reuters NEXT conference. Meghan Graper of Barclays estimated that the top five U.S. tech companies may need nearly $100 billion in funding, driven largely by the race to build advanced AI-ready data centers. Traditionally reliant on cash, these companies are now turning to the debt market, with nearly $90 billion in public bond issuance since September from major cloud-computing firms. Additionally, a growing M&A deal backlog is expected to further boost corporate financing. Currently, $175 billion in announced M&A deals await funding—more than double that of the previous year. Morgan Stanley’s Anish Shah noted increased interest from private equity firms due to a revived IPO market. Executives downplayed systemic risk, citing strong and diverse cash flows backing the corporate debt, primarily secured by tangible assets such as data centers in development. Overall, 2026 is projected to see a surge in investment-grade corporate debt driven by technological expansion and consolidation.
- https://www.reuters.com/business/morgan-stanleys-co-head-investment-banking-assomull-expects-more-financial-ma-2025-12-03/ – Morgan Stanley anticipates a robust increase in mergers, acquisitions (M&A), and initial public offerings (IPOs) in the coming year, according to Mo Assomull, the bank’s co-head of investment banking. Speaking at the Reuters NEXT conference in New York, Assomull noted that the M&A pipeline is strong across various sectors, particularly technology, healthcare, industrials, and financials. He emphasized that the economic environment is favorable for deal activity. The Trump administration’s pro-growth policies are also expected to drive consolidation in the financial sector, supported by a more lenient regulatory climate and banks’ need to scale up. Additionally, while interest in artificial intelligence remains strong, investors and lenders are being more selective in financing AI companies. Morgan Stanley recently reported better-than-expected third-quarter profits, with record revenue driven by a surge in dealmaking, and its investment banking pipeline is reportedly at an all-time high.
- https://www.ey.com/en_us/newsroom/2025/10/dealmakers-shift-from-recovery-to-resilient-growth-driven-by-strategic-ai-driven-transformation – The US deal market is headed into strategic acceleration in 2026, led by high-value, transformative transactions, according to the EY-Parthenon October 2025 Deal Barometer. The proprietary forecast from EY-Parthenon practice anticipates continued deal volume growth in both corporate and private equity (PE) dealmaking through 2026, extending the rebound that started in 2024. The Deal Barometer projects that the number of corporate M&A deals will increase 3% in 2026, following an anticipated 10% advance in 2025. PE deal volume is expected to rise 5% in 2026, following an 8% increase in 2025. This sustained activity and increased share of large deals are expected to translate into notably stronger growth in deal value. “Dealmakers are leaning into transformative growth strategies, supported by resilient balance sheets and improving financing conditions,” said Mitch Berlin, EY Americas Vice Chair, EY-Parthenon. “The winning CEOs are no longer waiting for global stability. They are moving with confidence to acquire capabilities, specifically AI and next-generation technology, that are rewiring their businesses for resilience and driving portfolio transformation.”
- https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/global-ma-hits-26-trillion-peak-year-to-date-boosted-by-ai-quest-growth-2025-08-04/ – As of August 1, 2025, global mergers and acquisitions (M&A) have surged to $2.6 trillion year-to-date, marking the highest level in the first seven months since the 2021 post-pandemic peak. While the number of deals is 16% lower than last year, their overall value rose by 28%, driven by U.S. megadeals exceeding $10 billion. Major transactions include Union Pacific’s proposed $85 billion acquisition of Norfolk Southern and OpenAI’s $40 billion funding round led by Softbank. The M&A boom is primarily fueled by corporate pursuit of growth, booming artificial intelligence (AI) investments, and renewed confidence amid evolving U.S. regulatory frameworks. Despite previous hesitations due to U.S. tariffs and geopolitical uncertainty, executive sentiment has shifted positively. Healthcare previously led M&A after the pandemic, but technology—particularly AI and data center infrastructure—now dominates. Significant deals include Samsung’s $1.7 billion acquisition of FlaktGroup and Palo Alto Networks’ $25 billion purchase of CyberArk. Private equity activity has also rebounded with notable transactions, including Sycamore Partners’ $10B Walgreens buyout. The U.S. remains the dominant M&A market, with Asia-Pacific dealmaking doubling from last year, surpassing EMEA growth. Analysts forecast continued high-value deals in the latter half of the year.
- https://www.reuters.com/business/global-ma-activity-up-10-first-nine-months-2025-study-shows-2025-10-28/ – Global mergers and acquisitions (M&A) activity rose 10% in the first nine months of 2025 compared to the same period in 2024, with total deal volume reaching $1.938 trillion, according to the Boston Consulting Group. This marks the second consecutive year of growth, showing a gradual recovery despite uncertainties from U.S. tariff policy changes and geopolitical tensions. However, the total remains over 40% below the peak seen in the same period in 2021. North America accounted for over 60% of the 2025 M&A activity, with deal value increasing more than 25% to $1.2 trillion. In contrast, European M&A volume declined by 5% to $375 billion. Sector-wise, technology, media, and telecoms led with $536 billion, followed by financial institutions and real estate at $357 billion, and industrials at $280 billion. Regionally, the Netherlands and Switzerland saw the highest growth in deal value, increasing by 263% and 109% respectively. Germany, Italy, and the Nordics also saw gains, while Britain, France, and Spain experienced significant declines. The Asia-Pacific region hit a ten-year low, dropping 19% to $284 billion.
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The draft above was created using the information available at the time the story first
emerged. We’ve since applied our fact-checking process to the final narrative, based on the criteria listed
below. The results are intended to help you assess the credibility of the piece and highlight any areas that may
warrant further investigation.
Freshness check
Score:
8
Notes:
The narrative references Deloitte’s 2026 M&A Trends Survey, which is scheduled for release in January 2026. An early preview was published on December 3, 2025, indicating recent data. The article was published on December 5, 2025, suggesting timely reporting. However, the reliance on an early preview of a forthcoming report may affect the freshness score. Additionally, the article cites data from the third quarter of 2025, which may be considered older by December 5, 2025. The narrative does not appear to be recycled from low-quality sites or clickbait networks. The use of an early preview of a forthcoming report typically warrants a high freshness score. No discrepancies in figures, dates, or quotes were identified. The article includes updated data but recycles older material, which may justify a higher freshness score but should still be flagged. No similar content was found published more than 7 days earlier.
Quotes check
Score:
9
Notes:
The article does not contain direct quotes. The information is paraphrased from Deloitte’s 2026 M&A Trends Survey and other sources. No identical quotes were found in earlier material, indicating originality. The absence of direct quotes suggests the content is potentially original or exclusive.
Source reliability
Score:
10
Notes:
The narrative originates from CFO.com, a reputable financial news outlet. It references Deloitte’s 2026 M&A Trends Survey, a forthcoming report from a well-established consulting firm. The use of reputable sources strengthens the reliability of the information presented.
Plausability check
Score:
8
Notes:
The article presents data from Deloitte’s 2026 M&A Trends Survey, scheduled for release in January 2026, with an early preview published on December 3, 2025. The data from the third quarter of 2025 is consistent with the publication date. The article discusses a surge in deal value in 2025, aligning with reported market trends. The narrative does not make surprising or impactful claims without supporting detail from reputable outlets. The language and tone are consistent with financial reporting standards. No excessive or off-topic detail unrelated to the claim was identified. The tone is appropriately formal and resembles typical corporate language.
Overall assessment
Verdict (FAIL, OPEN, PASS): PASS
Confidence (LOW, MEDIUM, HIGH): HIGH
Summary:
The narrative is timely, originating from a reputable source, and presents plausible information consistent with known market trends. The absence of direct quotes and reliance on an early preview of a forthcoming report are noted but do not significantly detract from the overall credibility.