Aberdeen Investments highlights ongoing resilience in the world economy amid rising geopolitical tension and inflation uncertainties, while suggesting diversification is more crucial than ever.
Aberdeen Investments has said the world economy is still proving resilient, but warned that a mix of geopolitical strain, uneven inflation and late-cycle dynamics is making the outlook less predictable.
In its latest quarterly House View, the asset manager said global growth is likely to come in at about 3.2% this year, broadly in line with forecasts from the International Monetary Fund, which has described the global economy as heading for a soft landing after a period of rapid inflation and policy tightening. Aberdeen said the recovery is being underpinned by strong corporate earnings and continued investment linked to artificial intelligence, but it sees a more difficult phase ahead for markets.
Peter Branner, Aberdeen’s chief investment officer, said the economy remained supported by solid fundamentals, yet warned that geopolitical risk and inflation shocks were becoming harder to ignore. Paul Diggle, the firm’s chief economist, said the recent energy shock driven by conflict in the Middle East may prove temporary, but argued that supply-side disruptions are likely to recur more often than in the past.
That shift, Aberdeen said, raises the chance that equities and bonds could fall together more frequently, strengthening the case for broader diversification across regions and asset classes. The IMF has also said inflation is easing and that growth in 2024 and 2025 should hold at around 3.2%, although it has urged policymakers to rebuild public finances and support medium-term growth.
Aberdeen said it still favours emerging markets, infrastructure and real estate, but has become less confident on the US dollar. It argued that a gradual move away from the currency, including heavier central bank buying of gold, could weigh on it over time.
The firm kept a neutral view on private credit, citing concerns over lending standards, liquidity and signs of strain in parts of the direct lending market.
Its caution chimes with a recent assessment from KPMG International, which also expects global GDP growth to edge up from 3.1% in 2024 to 3.2% in 2025, while warning that trade tensions and political uncertainty could unsettle the outlook further.
- https://financialnewswire.com.au/investment/aberdeen-says-resilient-global-economy-faces-growth-risks/ – Please view link – unable to able to access data
- https://www.weforum.org/stories/2024/02/imf-world-economic-outlook-report-soft-landing/ – The International Monetary Fund (IMF) projects global economic growth to be 3.1% in 2024 and 3.2% in 2025, indicating a ‘soft landing’ with steady growth. Inflation is expected to decline, and the energy crisis is easing, though fiscal measures should be phased out. Central banks face risks in balancing monetary policy to avoid premature easing while ensuring timely normalization. The IMF highlights the need for policy focus on repairing public finances and improving medium-term growth prospects.
- https://kpmg.com/xx/en/media/press-releases/2024/11/geopolitical-uncertainty-and-trade-tensions-clouding-short-term-improving-economic-outlook.html – KPMG International forecasts global GDP growth to rise from 3.1% in 2024 to 3.2% in 2025. However, geopolitical risks remain elevated, with post-US election policies, including potential tariffs, potentially impacting growth and inflation in 2026. The report highlights the need for policymakers to address these uncertainties to sustain economic recovery.
- https://www.imf.org/en/publications/weo/issues/2024/04/16/world-economic-outlook-april-2024 – The IMF’s April 2024 World Economic Outlook projects global growth to continue at 3.2% in 2024 and 2025, matching the pace of 2023. Advanced economies are expected to see slight acceleration, while emerging markets may experience modest slowdown. Global inflation is forecasted to decline steadily, with advanced economies returning to their inflation targets sooner than emerging markets.
- https://www.imf.org/en/blogs/articles/2024/01/30/global-economy-approaches-soft-landing-but-risks-remain – The IMF reports that the global economy is approaching a soft landing, with inflation declining steadily and growth holding up. However, the pace of expansion remains slow, and potential turbulence may lie ahead. The IMF emphasizes the need for policy focus on repairing public finances and improving medium-term growth prospects.
- https://www.imf.org/en/blogs/articles/2024/04/16/global-economy-remains-resilient-despite-uneven-growth-challenges-ahead – Despite challenges such as supply-chain disruptions, energy and food crises, and synchronized monetary policy tightening, the global economy remains resilient. The IMF projects steady growth at 3.2% in 2024 and 2025, with inflation declining from 9.4% in 2022 to 2.4% by the end of 2025. Policymakers are advised to prioritize steps toward greater economic resilience.
- https://www.imf.org/en/publications/weo/issues/2024/01/30/world-economic-outlook-update-january-2024 – The IMF’s January 2024 World Economic Outlook Update projects global growth at 3.1% in 2024 and 3.2% in 2025, with the 2024 forecast 0.2 percentage point higher than previous projections. The report highlights the resilience of major economies and the importance of fiscal support in sustaining growth.
Noah Fact Check Pro
The draft above was created using the information available at the time the story first
emerged. We’ve since applied our fact-checking process to the final narrative, based on the criteria listed
below. The results are intended to help you assess the credibility of the piece and highlight any areas that may
warrant further investigation.
Freshness check
Score:
8
Notes:
The article was published on 15 July 2026. The latest available source from Aberdeen Investments is dated 5 May 2026, which is over two months prior. ([aberdeeninvestments.com](https://www.aberdeeninvestments.com/en-gb/professional/insights-and-research/house-view-staying-invested-but-trimming-risk-after-the-rebound?utm_source=openai)) The Financial Newswire article appears to be the first to report on this specific content, suggesting originality. However, the absence of more recent sources raises questions about the timeliness of the information.
Quotes check
Score:
7
Notes:
The article includes direct quotes from Peter Branner and Paul Diggle. A search reveals that these quotes are consistent with statements made in the 5 May 2026 Aberdeen House View. ([aberdeeninvestments.com](https://www.aberdeeninvestments.com/en-gb/professional/insights-and-research/house-view-staying-invested-but-trimming-risk-after-the-rebound?utm_source=openai)) However, the Financial Newswire article does not provide a direct link to the original source, making independent verification challenging. The lack of direct sourcing raises concerns about the accuracy and context of the quotes.
Source reliability
Score:
6
Notes:
Financial Newswire is a niche publication with limited reach. The article does not provide direct links to primary sources, relying instead on secondary reporting. This lack of direct sourcing diminishes the reliability of the information presented.
Plausibility check
Score:
7
Notes:
The claims about global economic resilience and the impact of AI investments are plausible and align with general economic trends. However, the absence of corroborating reports from other reputable outlets makes it difficult to fully assess the accuracy of these claims. The lack of supporting evidence from independent sources raises concerns about the validity of the information.
Overall assessment
Verdict (FAIL, OPEN, PASS): FAIL
Confidence (LOW, MEDIUM, HIGH): MEDIUM
Summary:
The article presents information that is plausible and aligns with known economic trends. However, the lack of direct sourcing, reliance on secondary reporting, and absence of corroborating reports from other reputable outlets raise significant concerns about the accuracy and reliability of the content. The absence of more recent sources further questions the timeliness of the information.