A joint report by Coinbase Institutional and Glassnode suggests Bitcoin is entering a new phase characterised by lower leverage, institutional focus, and increased resilience to macroeconomic shocks as the market transitions into 2026.
Bitcoin appears to be settling into a less frenetic, more resilient market regime, according to a joint quarterly study by Coinbase Institutional and on‑chain analytics firm Glassnode. The Charting Crypto: 1Q 2026 report argues that the heavy use of leverage that amplified downside moves in late 2025 has largely been removed from the system, leaving the largest cryptocurrency better able to withstand interest‑rate shifts and other macro shocks.
According to the report by Coinbase Institutional and Glassnode, market behaviour is shifting away from the retail‑led, high‑leverage cycles of earlier years towards dynamics more tightly linked to global liquidity, institutional positioning and deliberate portfolio rebalancing. The authors write: “We believe that crypto markets are entering 2026 in a healthier state, with excess leverage having been flushed from the system in Q4.” They add that, while monetary policy looks supportive in the near term, money‑supply growth is expected to slow later in the quarter.
One of the report’s key gauges is Coinbase’s bespoke Global M2 Money Supply Index, which the firms say has historically led Bitcoin’s price by roughly 110 days. That index remains broadly positive for the current quarter, providing a constructive backdrop even as researchers warn that the pace of liquidity expansion may moderate. The study also highlights a notable shift in derivatives markets: open interest in Bitcoin options has exceeded perpetual futures as investors increasingly pay for protection rather than piling into directional leverage.
Independent coverage of derivatives activity supports that picture. Industry data cited by market commentators show a marked decline in speculative futures open interest from October 2025 into early 2026, while large institutional venues such as CME grew their relative share of BTC futures open interest. Reports indicate total derivatives turnover in 2025 was substantial, reinforcing the view that trading has become more institutionally steered and hedging‑oriented.
On‑chain metrics provide complementary evidence. Glassnode and other analysts observe that coin movement increased towards the end of 2025 even as the proportion of supply held by long‑term investors edged down, a pattern consistent with redistribution among holders rather than forced liquidation. Glassnode‑derived measures of unrealised gains and losses point to weaker sentiment since October, suggesting a cautious, consolidationary tone rather than exuberant buying.
Not all observers interpret the data as uniformly bullish. Coverage by market outlets notes Bitcoin trading inside a wide consolidation band late in the quarter and warns that a failure to reclaim certain short‑term cost bases could reopen downside risks. The report itself flags potential threats to the nascent stability: slower money‑supply growth, a resurgence of inflationary pressure or geopolitical shocks could still test whether the current resilience endures.
Price action on the day of the report was muted , CoinGecko data showed Bitcoin up around 1.2% at about $89,000 and roughly unchanged on a seven‑day basis , reinforcing the narrative of a market in consolidation rather than in the early throes of a new speculative leg. Market participants, including executives at trading firms, said the confluence of macro events and political uncertainty has made aggressive, leverage‑heavy strategies less appealing for now.
Taken together, the analysis paints a market in transition: less dependent on leverage, more responsive to macro liquidity trends, and increasingly governed by institutional risk management and portfolio reallocation. That configuration may reduce the probability of the rapid, cascade‑style declines that characterised prior sell‑offs, but it also implies slower price discovery and a greater sensitivity to the global economic backdrop.
- https://decrypt.co/356122/bitcoin-seen-entering-a-more-stable-phase-coinbase-and-glassnode-say – Please view link – unable to able to access data
- https://www.chaincatcher.com/en/article/2241003 – A report by Coinbase’s institutional research division and on-chain analytics firm Glassnode indicates that Bitcoin is entering a more stable and resilient market phase. The Q4 2025 correction has largely eliminated excess leverage, reducing Bitcoin’s sensitivity to cascading liquidations and enhancing its ability to withstand macro-level shocks. The current market trend suggests a shift towards a ‘macro-sensitive asset,’ with Bitcoin’s price being more influenced by global liquidity, institutional positioning, and portfolio rebalancing activities, rather than high-leverage speculative cycles. Institutional investors are now favouring defensive allocations. ([chaincatcher.com](https://www.chaincatcher.com/en/article/2241003?utm_source=openai))
- https://blog.mexc.com/news/bitcoin-entering-stable-phase-market-analysis/ – A recent analysis highlights that Bitcoin is entering a more stable market phase, with reduced volatility. The report notes that the market is finding a bottom not due to an influx of new money, but because of a pause in sales. This exhaustion of sell-side pressure, combined with steady institutional holding, has compressed volatility. Glassnode’s on-chain data shows that long-term holders have significantly slowed their distribution compared to late 2025, suggesting that profit-taking is subsiding, leaving a supply-constrained market less prone to violent downside crashes. ([blog.mexc.com](https://blog.mexc.com/news/bitcoin-entering-stable-phase-market-analysis/?utm_source=openai))
- https://phemex.com/news/article/glassnode-report-bitcoin-enters-stable-phase-with-reduced-leverage-56421 – According to a report by Coinbase’s institutional research division and Glassnode, Bitcoin is entering a more stable market phase with reduced leverage risk. The Q4 2025 correction has eliminated excessive leverage, reducing Bitcoin’s vulnerability to liquidations and enhancing its resilience to macroeconomic shocks. This phase is characterised by Bitcoin’s emergence as a ‘macro-sensitive asset,’ influenced by global liquidity and institutional strategies, rather than high-leverage speculative cycles. The report notes a shift towards defensive allocations by institutional investors, with Bitcoin options open interest surpassing perpetual contracts, indicating a preference for downside protection. ([phemex.com](https://phemex.com/news/article/glassnode-report-bitcoin-enters-stable-phase-with-reduced-leverage-56421?utm_source=openai))
- https://finance.yahoo.com/news/bitcoin-stuck-consolidation-limbo-not-143751128.html – Glassnode reports that Bitcoin is currently in a state of consolidation, trading between $97,000 and $111,900. The resistance stands near $116,000, marked by top-buyers’ supply cluster. Significant factors like ETF outflows, low leverage, and persistent put demand portray a highly cautious market that’s currently waiting for renewed conviction. The report suggests that unless Bitcoin reclaims the short-term holder cost basis (~$111.9K) as support, the probability of revisiting the lower bound of this range remains elevated. ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/bitcoin-stuck-consolidation-limbo-not-143751128.html?utm_source=openai))
- https://www.ainvest.com/news/bitcoin-emerging-bull-case-institutional-inflows-derivatives-rebalancing-chain-supply-dynamics-2601/ – The Bitcoin derivatives market has transitioned from retail-driven speculation to institutional-led risk management in 2025. Total derivatives trading volume reached $85.70 trillion, with the CME Group overtaking Binance in Bitcoin futures open interest. By year-end, the CME’s daily BTC futures volume approached $12 billion, rivaling offshore venues. This shift reflects a broader trend of institutional investors prioritising hedging and capital efficiency over leveraged bets. Open interest in Bitcoin futures declined by over 40% from October 2025 to early 2026, signalling a reduction in speculative leverage. Funding rates for BTC and ETH remained stable at +0.47% and +0.37%, respectively, indicating cautiously bullish positioning. ([ainvest.com](https://www.ainvest.com/news/bitcoin-emerging-bull-case-institutional-inflows-derivatives-rebalancing-chain-supply-dynamics-2601/?utm_source=openai))
- https://insights.glassnode.com/coinbase-glassnode-charting-crypto-q2-2025/ – The Q2 2025 edition of ‘Charting Crypto’ by Coinbase and Glassnode provides a data-rich, high-resolution view of the crypto market. The report covers various aspects, including ETF flows, market cycles, volatility correlations, and on-chain behaviour, distilling macro context into actionable insights. It highlights the growing traction of stablecoins as a core component of the crypto financial stack, with stablecoin transaction volumes hitting a new all-time high last quarter. The report also notes that stablecoins are positioned to capture more institutional and retail flow in 2025, particularly in high-inflation economies. ([insights.glassnode.com](https://insights.glassnode.com/coinbase-glassnode-charting-crypto-q2-2025/?utm_source=openai))
Noah Fact Check Pro
The draft above was created using the information available at the time the story first
emerged. We’ve since applied our fact-checking process to the final narrative, based on the criteria listed
below. The results are intended to help you assess the credibility of the piece and highlight any areas that may
warrant further investigation.
Freshness check
Score:
10
Notes:
The article references the ‘Charting Crypto: Q1 2026’ report, published on January 26, 2026, which is the earliest known publication date for this content. No evidence of recycled news or discrepancies found.
Quotes check
Score:
9
Notes:
The article includes direct quotes from the ‘Charting Crypto: Q1 2026’ report. These quotes match the content of the report, indicating originality. However, the absence of independent verification of these quotes raises a minor concern.
Source reliability
Score:
10
Notes:
The article cites the ‘Charting Crypto: Q1 2026’ report, a reputable source from Coinbase Institutional and Glassnode. No signs of derivative content or unverified sources were found.
Plausability check
Score:
10
Notes:
The claims about Bitcoin entering a more stable phase align with the findings of the ‘Charting Crypto: Q1 2026’ report. No inconsistencies or implausible statements identified.
Overall assessment
Verdict (FAIL, OPEN, PASS): PASS
Confidence (LOW, MEDIUM, HIGH): HIGH
Summary:
The article accurately summarises the ‘Charting Crypto: Q1 2026’ report, with no significant issues identified. The primary concern is the lack of independent verification of the quotes, but this does not substantially affect the overall assessment.