Blackstone predicts surge in M&A activity in 2026 driven by deal environment shifts

In an interview with PE Hub, Martin Brand, senior managing director at Blackstone and head of Blackstone Capital Partners, said he expects a stronger dealmaking environment in 2026 as “the deal dam is breaking”, pointing to a narrowing bid‑ask spread, declining cost of capital and resilient operating fundamentals as fuel for renewed M&A momentum. According to the report by PE Hub, Brand highlighted Blackstone’s active 2025, including the October announcement to take Hologic private in a transaction valuing the company at up to $18.3 billion, and he stressed the manager’s continued discipline in pursuing only transactions expected to deliver the highest returns for investors.

Blackstone and TPG announced a definitive agreement to acquire Hologic for up to $79 per share, comprising $76 in cash plus a contingent value right worth up to $3 per share, a deal the firms say will strengthen Hologic’s position in women’s health and is expected to close in the first half of 2026, subject to approvals. Kirkland & Ellis advised Blackstone and TPG on the transaction, which includes significant minority investments from an Abu Dhabi Investment Authority subsidiary and an affiliate of GIC, according to a Blackstone statement.

The interview with Brand sits alongside an uptick in private equity activity in aerospace and defence. Blackstone has agreed to sell Arka Group, a Danbury, Connecticut‑based maker of space‑based sensor technologies and associated analytics, to CACI International for $2.6 billion in an all‑cash deal. CACI said the acquisition, announced in its investor release, is expected to close in the third quarter of its fiscal 2026 year pending regulatory approvals and customary conditions; the company also flagged an expected tax benefit with a present value of $225 million. Industry commentary and transaction filings cited by financial news outlets forecast that ARKA’s capabilities will contribute meaningfully to CACI’s space‑based sensing and actionable intelligence offerings; 일부 reports estimate approximately $650 million of revenue and $145 million of EBITDA contribution over the next 12 months from the acquired business.

Separately, the $350 million sale of GenNx360 Capital Partners‑backed Aero 3 to VSE Corporation has closed. Aero 3, based in Manchester, New Hampshire and founded in 1994, is a maintenance, repair and overhaul provider and distributor focused on the commercial wheel and brake aftermarket; VSE, headquartered in Miramar, Florida, provides aviation aftermarket distribution and repair services.

PE Hub’s inaugural sector feature and LSEG data reported that private equity and venture capital deal value in aerospace and defence reached record highs in 2025. By October 16, 2025, deal value in the sector stood at $17.7 billion, surpassing the prior full‑year record of $11.0 billion in 2021, the data show. PE investors and bankers surveyed for the feature pointed to a cluster of structural drivers: a post‑pandemic rebound in business and leisure travel, rising air travel demand in emerging markets linked to GDP per‑capita growth, heightened geopolitical tensions increasing defence spend, regionalisation of supply chains amid deglobalisation, and technology adoption including AI and space systems. “As more people fly in emerging markets and as emerging economies grow, there is a correlation between GDP per capita and the consumption of air travel,” said Dan Zamlong, managing director at Warburg Pincus, speaking to PE Hub.

Brand told PE Hub that Blackstone sees differentiated opportunity in large take‑privates and carve‑outs and in “picks and shovels” of AI , notably the energy and power ecosystem for data centres , alongside investments in capital‑light consumer franchises. He noted that Blackstone Private Equity non‑disclosure agreements were up roughly 2.5x year‑to‑date as of 30 September 2025, which the firm interprets as further evidence of accelerating transaction flow.

Taken together, the deal pipeline and recent closed transactions suggest private equity is increasingly active across both strategic tech‑adjacent opportunities and traditional aerospace and defence plays. Market participants warn, however, that continued progress into 2026 will still depend on regulatory clearances for large strategic deals, financing conditions remaining supportive, and sellers’ continued willingness to close on narrower valuation gaps.