Blackstone shifts from caution to aggressive dealmaking with $20 billion private equity surge

Over the past year Blackstone’s private equity arm has moved decisively from caution to transaction, executing a string of large deals and signalling confidence that a broader revival in M&A is under way.

Speaking to PE Hub, Martin Brand, senior managing director and head of Blackstone Capital Partners, said: “Over the past year, we’ve been very active and continue to see deal volume picking up. In terms of a signature moment, this October we announced an agreement for the take-private of Hologic, a global leader in women’s health dedicated to developing innovative medical technologies, representing an enterprise value of up to over $18 billion.” He added that, “Year-to-date, through the third quarter, we have executed more than $20 billion of realizations across our private equity segment (excluding infrastructure).”

According to a Blackstone and TPG announcement, the Hologic transaction values the company at up to $18.3 billion, comprising a $76 per share cash payment plus a contingent value right of up to $3 per share tied to revenue milestones, representing a roughly 46% premium to Hologic’s closing price on 23 May 2025. The statement said significant minority stakes are being taken by the Abu Dhabi Investment Authority and GIC, and the deal is expected to close in the first half of 2026, subject to shareholder and regulatory approvals.

Brand framed Hologic as illustrative of the kind of complex, large-scale transactions Blackstone can execute. “We continue to see some of the greatest opportunities in transactions where we believe we can have differentiated success. Blackstone’s brand, scale and breadth of resources enable us to execute complex, large take-privates and carve-outs – like Hologic this year (and in years prior Smartsheet and Copeland),” he said to PE Hub.

The firm’s optimism extends beyond single deals. Brand told PE Hub that the macro picture is improving: “We believe the environment continues to be favourable for M&A and that the deal dam is breaking. Momentum is driven by the declining cost of capital and strong operating fundamentals – all signs of a resilient economy and the backbone of the resurgence in capital markets activity.” He pointed to a roughly 40% rise in global deal activity year-to-date and said Blackstone Private Equity non-disclosure agreements were up 2.5x since the start of the year through 30 September 2025, signs he said of accelerating transaction flow.

That pickup is prompting Blackstone to balance urgency with selectivity. Brand stressed discipline: “From our perspective, it is key to remain disciplined as a buyer and only focus on deals we expect to deliver the highest returns for our investors.”

Sector focus and portfolio strategy reflect both thematic conviction and defensive positioning. Brand said Blackstone continues to back “the ‘picks and shovels’ of AI, including the energy and power ecosystem required for data centres, as well as high-quality, capital-light franchise businesses like Jersey Mike’s, Tropical Smoothie Cafe and 7 Brew.” He also described an internal AI governance change , “We also mandate an AI assessment in the first two pages of our investment memo. We’re asking ourselves: ‘What is the AI opportunity and what is the AI disruption risk?'” , and said AI tools are being deployed to enhance dealmaking and portfolio operations.

On exits, Brand is sanguine that capital markets are re-opening. “We expect an increasing wave of IPOs to come. We announced three IPOs in the third quarter alone – the first time since 2021 – and our IPO pipeline as of the third quarter, if converted, would equate to one of the largest issuance years in the firm’s history,” he told PE Hub. The three third-quarter listings referenced were Cirsa, Knowledge Realty Trust and Legence, illustrating Blackstone’s push to recycle capital into new opportunities as public markets improve.

Brand also addressed the growing accessibility of private equity to individual investors. He argued that “the combined firepower of our flagship vehicles and private equity strategy for individual investors enables us to speak for larger deals, positioning us as an attractive partner to management teams and further strengthening our ability to execute large, complex transactions such as Jersey Mike’s or Hologic.” He suggested broader retail access could increase dealflow and, in time, benefit all investors in their funds.

Blackstone’s recent activity underscores how large buyout firms are adapting to a recalibrating cost of capital and renewed seller appetite. The Hologic agreement, backed by sovereign wealth partners and structured with a contingent-value component, typifies a negotiated middle ground that can bridge remaining valuation gaps. As Brand noted, while bid-ask spreads narrowed over 2025, discipline remains central: securing attractive returns for investors is the stated lodestar even as deal momentum accelerates.