CFOs shift towards technology and AI in 2026 planning amid restrained headcount growth

CFOs are shifting the centre of gravity in 2026 planning away from payroll expansion and toward technology, sales and AI, according to new benchmarks from Gartner and related industry analysis.

According to Gartner’s October 2025 survey of more than 300 CFOs and finance leaders, increases in budgets for sales and IT outpace other areas, with over half of finance chiefs planning higher spend and 28% expecting double‑digit growth in each area. “Sales and IT are expected to see the largest budget increases in 2026, with over half of CFOs planning higher spending, and 28% anticipating double-digit growth in both areas, with marketing close behind,” said Nauman Abbasi, vice president analyst in the Gartner Finance practice. He added that while the lift for sales and marketing is aimed at growth, the IT rises reflect structural pressures such as expanding SaaS costs, digital process rollout and AI-related expenditure. “The emphasis on sales and marketing reflects their role as growth drivers, while IT budget increases reflect structural needs like rising SaaS costs, digital process expansion and AI-related expenses.”

The reallocation is pronounced: Gartner reports technology budgets will climb for roughly three quarters of CFOs, with almost half planning increases of 10% or more. Industry variation is notable, with average tech uplifts near 10% across sectors and higher boosts, around 15%, in financial services compared with nearer 6% in manufacturing, the firm found.

That tilt toward tech comes as headcount expectations cool sharply. Gartner’s benchmarks show average headcount growth forecast falling from 6% in 2025 to 2% in 2026, and only 21% of CFOs now plan staff increases of 4–9%, down from 31% a year earlier. Pay‑rise momentum is also easing, with projected salary increases declining from 6.1% in 2024 to an expected 4.5% in 2026. Gartner frames this as a structural pivot toward productivity gains driven by automation and AI rather than proportional labour expansion. “This marks a structural pivot from labor expansion to optimization driven by automation and AI that deliver productivity gains without proportional increases in headcount,” Abbasi said.

Finance functions are among the keenest adopters of AI. Gartner previously forecast that by 2026, 90% of finance teams will have deployed at least one AI‑enabled solution, though fewer than 10% expect those investments to produce outright headcount reductions. The vendor’s October 2025 survey underlines the trend: almost 60% of CFOs plan to lift finance‑function AI spend by 10% or more in 2026, while another 24% expect increases of 4–9%. Early stage allocations remain modest, 47% of organisations currently assign just 1–5% of finance technology budgets to AI, but reported gains in automation and forecasting are driving wider confidence. “CFOs recognise that AI is no longer just an experiment, it’s fast becoming a core enterprise capability,” Abbasi said. “The shift from cautious pilots to committed scale is driven by tangible gains in productivity and decision-making. As AI literacy grows and legacy systems are modernized, we expect to see accelerated investment and deeper integration across finance and the enterprise.”

The move to prioritise technology while restraining overheads aligns with broader finance strategy signals. Gartner’s October findings dovetail with a separate survey showing 64% of CFOs plan to grow SG&A budgets more slowly than revenue in 2026, reflecting an intent to preserve revenue ambitions while tightening operating cost trajectories. Forbes Research also reports a surge in CFOs’ participation in AI strategy: 38% of finance chiefs now sit at the table for AI decisions, up sharply from 1% in 2024, and two‑thirds expect modest increases in their AI budgets over the next two years.

Not all functions share in the uplift. Human resources appears vulnerable: Gartner finds only 29% of CFOs expect HR budgets to rise in 2026 and 22% foresee cuts, dragging average HR budget growth down from 2.4% in 2025 to 0.7% next year. The reallocation reflects belief among finance leaders that automation and AI can substitute for some traditional headcount drivers while enabling faster, leaner processes.

The reweighting of priorities presents strategic trade‑offs. CFOs are betting that technology and AI will raise productivity and revenue‑generation capabilities sufficiently to offset slower staffing growth and moderated pay increases. Gartner’s multiple studies and Forbes Research suggest the experiment is moving from pilots toward scale, but the limited current share of finance tech spending devoted to AI and the small proportion of firms expecting outright job cuts indicate many organisations view AI as augmentative rather than purely substitutive in the near term.

As organisations finalise 2026 plans, the clear message from industry data is that finance leaders will continue to bankroll digital transformation and sales‑led growth initiatives while pressing efficiencies into traditional overheads. Whether that bet delivers the productivity and forecast gains CFOs expect will become visible in the coming quarters as implementations move from proofs of concept to enterprise‑wide deployments.