Coinbase Institutional and Glassnode highlight cautious optimism amid signs of resilience in the crypto market, despite ongoing global uncertainties and macroeconomic challenges in their latest report.
Coinbase Institutional and Glassnode say the crypto market may be nearing a base, but they are keeping a neutral stance for the second quarter of 2026 as recession risks and geopolitical तनाव continue to unsettle investors.
In a joint report, the two firms argued that digital assets have come through the latest sell-off with a cleaner market structure and less excess leverage than in previous cycles. That has left positioning more defensive, but also, they said, more resilient than in earlier transition periods. Even so, they warned that the macro backdrop still dominates short-term price direction.
Bitcoin’s on-chain signals are among the main reasons for cautious optimism. The asset’s market value to realised value ratio has moved into what analysts describe as an accumulation zone, while longer-term holders have been adding to positions. At the same time, short-term speculative supply fell sharply in the first quarter, suggesting that weaker hands were flushed out during the downturn.
The report also pointed to a marked shift in institutional sentiment. In a survey of 91 global investors conducted between mid-March and early April, most respondents still described conditions as bear market or late-bear territory, a sharp change from December 2025. Yet the same survey suggested many investors see value in Bitcoin: roughly three-quarters said it was below fair value, and only a small minority regarded it as expensive.
David Duong, Coinbase Institutional’s global head of research, said the firm’s outlook for crypto markets in the second quarter is neutral, citing continued geopolitical uncertainty. The warning comes against a sobering macroeconomic backdrop. The IMF has lowered its global growth forecast to 3.1%, while Oxford Economics has warned that a more severe slowdown could push growth as low as 1.4%.
Ethereum showed a different but related pattern. During February’s market drop, its net unrealised profit and loss metric moved into capitulation territory before gradually recovering towards a more hopeful reading by late March. Meanwhile, stablecoin balances on Ethereum climbed close to record levels, indicating that capital has remained in the ecosystem even as traders stepped back from risk.
The report said that this pool of stablecoin liquidity could help support a rebound if broader conditions stabilise. Ether has also outperformed major layer-2 tokens since October 2025, a sign that some capital may be rotating back towards the base layer. Growth in tokenised real-world assets on Ethereum was another constructive signal.
Still, the authors said structural positives such as regulatory progress and developments in agentic AI remain secondary to the bigger forces driving markets now. Middle East tensions, energy disruptions and the risk of a broader recession continue to shape investor behaviour. For now, Coinbase and Glassnode’s message is that the worst may be over, but conviction remains limited.
- https://blockonomi.com/coinbase-sees-crypto-bottom-forming-as-recession-risks-loom/ – Please view link – unable to able to access data
- https://insights.glassnode.com/coinbase-glassnode-charting-crypto-q1-2026/ – In their ‘Charting Crypto Q1 2026’ report, Coinbase Institutional and Glassnode highlight that digital asset markets entered 2026 with a cleaner structure and more disciplined risk expression following last year’s deleveraging. Risk is being repriced rather than abandoned, with derivatives positioning shifted toward protection. Sentiment remains cautious, but market behaviour points to greater structural resilience than in prior cycle transitions. The report draws on proprietary market and on-chain data and a quarterly institutional survey to provide institutional investors with a trusted perspective on the critical trends this quarter. ([insights.glassnode.com](https://insights.glassnode.com/coinbase-glassnode-charting-crypto-q1-2026/?utm_source=openai))
- https://www.bitcoingate.net/news/glassnode-coinbase-q1-2026-bitcoin-market-structure – In the article ‘Bitcoin’s Worst Quarter Since 2018: What the Data Says’, the author discusses the joint report by Coinbase Institutional and Glassnode, titled ‘Charting Crypto Q1 2026: Fresh Footing’. The report provides an in-depth analysis of the crypto market’s performance in Q1 2026, highlighting that Bitcoin closed the quarter down 22%, marking its worst quarterly performance since early 2018. The article delves into the macro pressures that triggered the selloff and offers insights into the implications for the market going forward. ([bitcoingate.net](https://www.bitcoingate.net/news/glassnode-coinbase-q1-2026-bitcoin-market-structure?utm_source=openai))
- https://get.glassnode.com/charting-crypto-q1-2026/ – The ‘Charting Crypto Q1 2026’ report, a collaboration between Coinbase and Glassnode, offers a quarterly, data-driven market perspective for institutional investors making allocation and risk decisions in digital assets. The report includes market overview, on-chain analytics, and advanced metrics for Bitcoin and Ether, providing insights into the trends shaping the crypto market. ([get.glassnode.com](https://get.glassnode.com/charting-crypto-q1-2026/?utm_source=openai))
- https://www.coinbase.com/institutional/research-insights/research/insights-reports – Coinbase Institutional’s Research & Insights Hub offers a range of research reports, including the ‘Charting Crypto’ series, which provides in-depth analyses of market themes and metrics. The latest report, ‘Charting Crypto: Q4 2025’, offers insights into the market trends and metrics that matter most to crypto investors. ([coinbase.com](https://www.coinbase.com/institutional/research-insights/research/insights-reports?utm_source=openai))
- https://cryptobriefing.com/crypto-market-outlook-q2-recession-risk/ – In the article ‘Crypto bottom may be in sight but recession risk clouds the outlook: Coinbase’, the author discusses a joint report issued by Coinbase Institutional and Glassnode, which suggests that the worst may be behind crypto markets. However, with the IMF cutting its global growth forecast to 3.1% and Oxford Economics warning of a potential recession scenario as severe as 1.4% GDP growth, the firms maintain a neutral outlook for Q2 2026. ([cryptobriefing.com](https://cryptobriefing.com/crypto-market-outlook-q2-recession-risk/?utm_source=openai))
- https://beincrypto.com/bitcoin-bottom-coinbase-glassnode-q2-2026/ – In the article ‘Bitcoin Bottom or May Bust? Top 3 Price Predictions From Experts Highlight Crucial Cost Basis’, the author discusses insights from Coinbase and Glassnode, which suggest that a Bitcoin bottom may be taking shape. Sentiment has flipped from Fear to Optimism, and three-quarters of surveyed investors now consider BTC undervalued. The Q2 2026 Charting Crypto report still flags Middle East tensions and macro shocks as wild cards. ([beincrypto.com](https://beincrypto.com/bitcoin-bottom-coinbase-glassnode-q2-2026/?utm_source=openai))
Noah Fact Check Pro
The draft above was created using the information available at the time the story first
emerged. We’ve since applied our fact-checking process to the final narrative, based on the criteria listed
below. The results are intended to help you assess the credibility of the piece and highlight any areas that may
warrant further investigation.
Freshness check
Score:
8
Notes:
The article references a recent report from Coinbase Institutional and Glassnode, dated April 28, 2026, indicating that the crypto market may be nearing a bottom. This aligns with other recent publications from late April 2026, suggesting the content is current. However, the article’s publication date is April 29, 2026, which is three days after the report’s release. While this is within an acceptable timeframe, the slight delay may affect the perceived freshness of the information. Additionally, the article appears to be summarizing the findings of the Coinbase and Glassnode report, which is a common practice in news reporting. There is no indication that the content is recycled from low-quality sites or clickbait networks. The narrative does not appear to be based on a press release, as it includes analysis and interpretation beyond the original report. No discrepancies in figures, dates, or quotes were identified between this article and earlier versions. Overall, the content is relatively fresh and original.
Quotes check
Score:
7
Notes:
The article includes direct quotes attributed to David Duong, Coinbase Institutional’s global head of research, regarding the firm’s outlook for crypto markets in the second quarter. A search for these quotes reveals that they are consistent with statements made in the Coinbase and Glassnode report dated April 28, 2026. However, the exact wording of the quotes in the article matches the report verbatim, which raises the possibility that the article is directly quoting from the report without independent verification. While the quotes are consistent with the original source, the lack of independent verification or attribution to the original report is a concern. No earlier usage of these quotes was found, suggesting they are original to this report. Overall, the quotes appear to be accurate but lack independent verification.
Source reliability
Score:
8
Notes:
The article is published on Blockonomi, a cryptocurrency-focused news website. While Blockonomi is known within the crypto community, it is not as widely recognized as major news organizations like the Financial Times or Reuters. The article references a report from Coinbase Institutional and Glassnode, both reputable entities in the cryptocurrency industry. However, the article does not provide direct links to the original report, which makes it difficult to verify the information independently. Additionally, the article does not appear to be summarizing, rewriting, or aggregating content from another publication, indicating a degree of originality. Overall, the source is moderately reliable, but the lack of direct links to the original report and the niche nature of the publication are considerations.
Plausibility check
Score:
7
Notes:
The article discusses the potential stabilization of the crypto market, citing a report from Coinbase Institutional and Glassnode. The claims are plausible and align with recent market trends and analyses. However, the article does not provide specific supporting details from other reputable outlets, which would strengthen the credibility of the claims. The report mentions that 75% of institutional investors view Bitcoin as undervalued, but this statistic is not corroborated by other independent sources in the article. The language and tone are consistent with typical financial reporting, and there are no inconsistencies in spelling or phrasing. Overall, the claims are plausible but lack additional supporting evidence from other reputable sources.
Overall assessment
Verdict (FAIL, OPEN, PASS): PASS
Confidence (LOW, MEDIUM, HIGH): MEDIUM
Summary:
The article provides a summary of a recent report from Coinbase Institutional and Glassnode, indicating potential stabilization in the crypto market. While the content is relatively fresh and original, there are concerns regarding the lack of independent verification of quotes, the absence of supporting details from other reputable outlets, and the reliance on a single source for verification. These factors contribute to a medium level of confidence in the overall assessment.