Nigel Green of deVere Group warns households, companies, and investors to brace for a 1970s-style economic environment amid weakening eurozone activity and soaring energy prices caused by Middle East conflict.
Households, companies and investors must prepare for an economic environment reminiscent of the 1970s, Nigel Green, chief executive of the deVere Group, warned on Tuesday as fresh private-sector data pointed to a sharp weakening in eurozone activity.
S&P Global’s flash composite Purchasing Managers’ Index for the eurozone slid to 50.5 in March from 51.9 in February, registering a ten-month low and sitting only marginally above the 50.0 line that separates expansion from contraction. According to S&P Global’s assessment, that reading is consistent with quarterly growth of almost zero. The broader picture for the largest developed economies is also flashing stress: S&P Global’s G4 flash PMIs show output for the G4 fell to 51.2 in March, the weakest in over two years, signalling slower expansion alongside rising price pressures.
The immediate catalyst has been the Middle East conflict involving Iran, which industry surveys and market reports say has tightened energy markets and disrupted supply chains. The Strait of Hormuz was closed on 4 March 2026, an event that removed a substantial share of global crude oil and liquefied natural gas from circulation. Brent crude has since moved above $120 a barrel, and input costs across the eurozone accelerated at their fastest pace since early 2023, with manufacturing input-cost measures recording record jumps. Supply-chain strains have intensified, with supplier delivery times lengthening to levels not seen since mid-2022.
“The figures show the severe impact the Iran war is already having on the eurozone economy,” Green said, drawing a parallel with the oil shocks that ended the post-war expansion in the US, Canada, Western Europe and Japan. He warned that the simultaneous rise in costs and the cooling of demand creates a perilous policy dilemma for central banks: tightening to check inflation risks deepening the slowdown, while loosening to support activity risks fuelling higher prices.
S&P Global’s chief business economist, Chris Williamson, warned the PMI readings could presage a pickup in consumer-price inflation toward about 3 percent in the coming months, a prospect that complicates the European Central Bank’s outlook. The ECB recently trimmed its 2026 growth projection to 0.9 percent and flagged upside inflation risks if energy prices remain elevated, underscoring the challenging trade-offs for policymakers.
The fallout is already visible at the country level. France’s composite PMI has slipped into contraction territory, while Germany’s economy faces pressures despite temporary boosts from defence-related orders. Business surveys compiled by market commentators and sector publications show the conflict is weighing on private-sector growth across the US, UK, Japan and India as well, fuelling broader stagflation concerns.
Market strategists are advising portfolio adjustments to reflect a higher probability of sustained inflation and weaker growth. Nigel Green urged a tilt toward assets seen as inflation-resistant , commodities, energy producers and firms with clear pricing power , while warning that cash holdings erode in real terms and that bonds may not provide customary protection if inflation persists. “Complacency is the biggest risk,” he said. “Investors who act decisively, diversify intelligently, and prioritise real returns over nominal gains will be best positioned to protect and grow wealth in the period ahead.”
Commentary from news outlets and financial analyses echoed the warning that Europe could be on the cusp of stagflation, noting collapsing confidence, surging input costs and stalling output. Some forecasters emphasise that the path ahead hinges on the conflict’s duration: a rapid de-escalation could allow energy prices to normalise and for PMI readings to recover later in 2026; a protracted war would keep energy markets tight and likely reshape growth and inflation prospects for energy-importing economies across Asia and Europe.
For now, businesses and policymakers must navigate the simultaneous threats of slowing demand and elevated prices, balancing near-term support for activity against the risk of embedding higher inflation expectations. Industry data and independent surveys suggest that, absent a quick resolution to the geopolitical shock, the fragility exposed in March’s PMIs may persist into the second half of the year.
- https://www.newsghana.com.gh/iran-war-drives-stagflation-risk-warns-global-financial-advisor/ – Please view link – unable to able to access data
- https://www.euronews.com/2026/03/24/is-the-iran-war-pushing-europe-into-a-stagflation-crisis – Euronews reports that the Iran conflict has led to stagflation in Europe, with input costs surging, output stalling, and confidence collapsing. The S&P Global flash Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) for the eurozone fell to 50.5 in March, a 10-month low, indicating a near-stagnant economy. The war has caused energy prices to rise, leading to increased input costs and supply chain disruptions. The European Central Bank faces challenges in addressing these issues, as both inflation and stagnation are present simultaneously.
- https://www.spglobal.com/market-intelligence/en/news-insights/research/2026/03/g4-flash-pmis-signal-war-stress-as-economies-report-slower-growth-and-higher-inflation – S&P Global’s flash PMI data indicates that the outbreak of war in the Middle East has led to slower growth and higher inflation across the G4 economies. The output index for the G4 economies fell to 51.2 in March, down from 52.2 in February, marking the lowest reading in over two years. All four largest developed economies reported slower growth, with the eurozone experiencing a ten-month low. The data suggests a growing risk of stagflation, with supply chain delays and increased input costs contributing to the economic downturn.
- https://www.investorideas.com/news/2026/main/03254-global-stagflation-risk-energy-prices-inflation-growth.asp – Investorideas.com highlights warnings from Nigel Green, CEO of deVere Group, about the potential for 1970s-style stagflation in the global economy. The article notes that private sector output in the eurozone fell to a 10-month low in March, with the Iran conflict impacting global economic conditions. Green draws parallels to the 1970s stagflation, characterized by high inflation, low growth, and high unemployment, driven by oil price shocks. The article emphasizes the need for preparedness against such economic challenges.
- https://www.spglobal.com/marketintelligence/en/mi/research-analysis/eurozone-economic-stagflation-risk-rises-in-june-june22.html – S&P Global reports that in June 2022, eurozone economic growth deteriorated sharply to a 16-month low, reflecting a stalling of demand growth. Manufacturing output contracted for the first time in two years, and service sector activity cooled considerably. Companies scaled back their business expectations for output over the coming year to the lowest since October 2020. The article attributes the stagnation of demand and worsening outlook to rising living costs, tighter financial conditions, and concerns over energy and supply chains linked to the Ukraine war and ongoing pandemic disruptions.
- https://www.globalbankingandfinance.com/iran-war-starts-hit-global-economy-business-surveys-show/ – Global Banking & Finance Review reports that business surveys show the Iran war, by disrupting key energy supplies and driving up oil and gas prices, is dampening private sector growth in the US, eurozone, UK, Japan, and India. The article raises stagflation fears and notes that central banks are considering tighter policy in response to the economic impact. The conflict has led to increased input costs and supply chain disruptions, affecting economic activity across multiple regions.
- https://www.financialcontent.com/article/marketminute-2026-3-24-eurozone-teeters-on-the-brink-march-pmi-data-reveals-stagnation-amid-rising-iran-conflict-costs – FinancialContent reports that the eurozone economy is nearing stagnation, with the S&P Global Flash Eurozone Composite PMI dropping to 50.5 in March, down from 51.9 in February. The primary driver is the escalation of the Middle East conflict, specifically involving Iran, which has disrupted global energy supply chains and sent input costs to three-year highs. The article highlights the resilience of the manufacturing sector, noting a PMI of 51.4, but warns of forced production as firms attempt to clear backlogs before supply chain disruptions worsen.
Noah Fact Check Pro
The draft above was created using the information available at the time the story first
emerged. We’ve since applied our fact-checking process to the final narrative, based on the criteria listed
below. The results are intended to help you assess the credibility of the piece and highlight any areas that may
warrant further investigation.
Freshness check
Score:
8
Notes:
The article was published on April 1, 2026, and references events up to March 30, 2026. The earliest known publication date of similar content is March 24, 2026, in the Los Angeles Times, discussing the synchronized slowdown across major economies due to the Iran war. ([latimes.com](https://www.latimes.com/business/story/2026-03-24/iran-war-triggers-synchronized-slowdown-across-worlds-biggest-economies?utm_source=openai)) The NewsGhana article appears to be a timely report, but the overlap with earlier publications suggests a moderate freshness score.
Quotes check
Score:
7
Notes:
The article includes direct quotes from Nigel Green, CEO of deVere Group, and Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at S&P Global. A search for these quotes reveals that similar statements were made in earlier articles, such as the Los Angeles Times piece from March 24, 2026. ([latimes.com](https://www.latimes.com/business/story/2026-03-24/iran-war-triggers-synchronized-slowdown-across-worlds-biggest-economies?utm_source=openai)) This suggests that the quotes may have been reused, raising concerns about originality.
Source reliability
Score:
6
Notes:
The article is published by NewsGhana, a niche news outlet. While it provides timely coverage, the lack of a well-established reputation and limited reach raises questions about its reliability. Additionally, the article appears to be summarizing information from other sources, including press releases and news articles, without offering substantial original reporting. This reliance on secondary sources diminishes the overall reliability score.
Plausibility check
Score:
7
Notes:
The article discusses the economic impact of the Iran war, referencing data from S&P Global and statements from industry experts. Similar analyses have been reported by reputable outlets, such as the Los Angeles Times and S&P Global’s own publications. ([latimes.com](https://www.latimes.com/business/story/2026-03-24/iran-war-triggers-synchronized-slowdown-across-worlds-biggest-economies?utm_source=openai)) However, the NewsGhana article’s reliance on secondary sources and the reuse of quotes without independent verification raise concerns about the plausibility of its claims.
Overall assessment
Verdict (FAIL, OPEN, PASS): FAIL
Confidence (LOW, MEDIUM, HIGH): MEDIUM
Summary:
The article presents timely information on the economic impact of the Iran war, referencing data from S&P Global and statements from industry experts. However, it relies heavily on secondary sources, including press releases and news articles, without offering substantial original reporting. The reuse of quotes and the lack of independent verification sources raise concerns about the article’s originality and reliability. Given these issues, the overall assessment is a FAIL.