Fidelity predicts 2026 will see crypto shift from speculation to mainstream finance

Digital assets spent much of 2025 moving sideways on price charts, but beneath the surface the industry was busy laying infrastructure that could make 2026 the year crypto stops behaving like a speculative fringe and begins to function as a core layer of global finance.

According to Fidelity Digital Assets’ “2026 Look Ahead” report, last year was less about headline-grabbing rallies and more about plumbing: regulated investment products, custody solutions, compliance frameworks and internal workflows were the focus of banks, brokerages and asset managers preparing for long-term participation. Fidelity frames 2025 as a year of institutional groundwork that could produce a more visible shift in the year ahead.

Chris Kuiper of Fidelity captured that sense of structural change in an interview with CoinDesk, saying: “Digital assets are approaching their shipping container moment.” What looks incremental today, he argued, reflects years of slow, structural change. He added that “Every major bank announced last year that they intend to build some form of capability in digital assets,” noting that progress in traditional finance is rarely immediate but often decisive.

The institutional appetite Fidelity documents is substantial. A separate Fidelity study cited in the firm’s communications found that 71% of institutional investors plan to buy or invest in digital assets in the future, and more than 90% of those interested expect to have allocations within the next five years. Fidelity’s research also shows ownership varies by region: digital asset possession was higher among respondents in Asia (69%) than Europe (67%) or the U.S. (42%), although Europe and the U.S. have seen marked increases since 2021.

Those intentions are translating into custody flows. Industry reporting indicates Fidelity’s digital asset custody expanded by over $3 billion in the third quarter of 2025, driven largely by Ethereum holdings, reflecting growing institutional exposure to smart-contract platforms and the diversification of institutional demand beyond Bitcoin.

A key element of the shift is the changing role of wealth managers and registered investment advisors. Kuiper told CoinDesk that “Wealth managers and RIAs are going to offer crypto to more clients,” a development that could unlock significant pools of capital and introduce steadier, institutionally-driven demand patterns. Fidelity expects that structured exposure, allowing firms to gain returns without directly holding assets, will be an important conduit for conservative allocators such as pensions, endowments and foundations to enter the market.

Regulation and infrastructure will determine how quickly that transition accelerates. Fidelity’s research flags pending U.S. market-structure legislation as a potential catalyst. “If that passes […] it will pave the way for traditional finance players […] to continue to build,” Kuiper said. At the same time, the report draws attention to technological risks, including quantum computing threats, and the industry push toward quantum-resistant custody and infrastructure.

Market discourse has shifted alongside these technical and regulatory moves. Fidelity notes a symbolic change in sentiment: narratives declaring Bitcoin “dead” have largely disappeared from mainstream debate, replaced by a growing acceptance, or at least resignation, that digital assets are a permanent asset class that will coexist with traditional capital markets through exchange-traded products, derivatives and tokenisation initiatives.

Observers outside Fidelity reach similar conclusions. Industry outlooks for 2026 emphasise a move away from the historical four-year boom-and-bust cycles towards a more stable growth trajectory underpinned by institutional adoption and the maturation of ETPs and custody services.

That said, Fidelity and others caution that 2026 is unlikely to be a single dramatic breakout driven by retail speculation. Instead, the turning point, if it arrives, may be marked by steady, structural integration: clearer legal treatments, more regulated products, broader advisor adoption and deeper participation by large, conservative pools of capital. In that scenario, price volatility could increasingly be overshadowed by the normalisation of crypto within the plumbing of modern finance.