Industry leaders at Abu Dhabi Finance Week highlight how geopolitical tensions and divergent interest rate paths are creating lucrative opportunities for macro and volatility-sensitive funds ahead of 2026, despite recent market challenges.
ABU DHABI , Markets roiled by geopolitical tensions and diverging interest rates are creating what some of the industry’s most influential managers describe as compelling money‑making opportunities for 2026, speakers at Abu Dhabi Finance Week said this week.
According to the original report, Shiv Srinivasan, who oversees investing for the Abu Dhabi state‑backed fund, told attendees that rising market volatility brought on by geopolitical events and a busy calendar of elections is a source of investment opportunity. “With pain comes opportunity,” he said, adding that the fund favours macro strategies and those that tend to be long volatility. Srinivasan also disclosed that his hedge fund portfolio is up 13% so far this year and said macroeconomic and trend funds were his preference for 2026, noting that “Those strategies did really well for us in 2022, along with CTAs.”
Robyn Grew, chief executive of London‑listed Man Group, echoed the view that volatility and dispersion create trading possibilities. “Yes, we like a bit of volatility. Yes, we like a bit of dispersion,” she said. Man Group, which Grew began leading in 2023, reported record assets under management of $193.3 billion in the first half of 2025 even as core profit fell amid volatile markets, according to company filings and reporting. Industry data shows Man’s AUM growth was driven by large net inflows into systematic and credit products, even as some systematic trend strategies struggled earlier in the year.
Aron Landy, chief executive of Brevan Howard, said he expected greater dispersion across global asset values and singled out divergent interest‑rate paths as a major source of opportunity. “I can’t imagine any scenario where the U.S. administration turns around and declares China their new best friend,” he told the conference, citing persistent geopolitical friction. Landy also pointed to cryptocurrency as an area offering asymmetric returns, saying: “Of course, it’s volatile, but the biggest risk in crypto is to have no exposure at all.”
The remarks at Abu Dhabi reflect a wider industry recalibration. Data and reporting this year have highlighted a widening performance gap between systematic trend‑following CTAs and more nimble discretionary macro managers. Trend funds, which systematically buy assets as they rise and sell as they fall, did exceptionally well during the large market moves of 2022 but, by mid‑2025, were reported to be struggling in the face of rapid whipsaws in assets such as U.S. Treasuries, the Australian dollar and Japanese government bonds. By contrast, discretionary macro funds that can shift positioning quickly have recorded stronger returns, with several prominent managers posting double‑digit gains year‑to‑date.
Firms have responded by reweighting exposures. Man Group has emphasised diversification across systematic and discretionary strategies and undertook internal restructuring to streamline operations and reduce friction between major units, according to company statements and reporting. Brevan Howard, which manages roughly $30–35 billion depending on the source, has been expanding its presence in the UAE: Abu Dhabi‑linked investor Lunate acquired a minority stake in Brevan Howard and agreed to an initial $2 billion platform in Abu Dhabi, part of a broader push to anchor macro trading and alternative asset platforms in the emirate. The firm has also said a significant portion of its crypto trading is conducted from the UAE because of what executives described as “sensible regulations.”
Taken together, the comments underline a market consensus among some institutional and hedge fund leaders: an environment of heightened political uncertainty, policy divergence among major central banks and episodic market shocks makes active, flexible strategies , particularly macro and volatility‑sensitive approaches , attractive. Industry data cited at the conference and in subsequent reporting suggests that while past headline returns for trend funds were impressive during decisive market moves, their near‑term performance has been uneven, increasing the case for blended, adaptable portfolios.
The company claims and industry figures presented in Abu Dhabi point to a strategy mix that leans into volatility rather than avoiding it. As managers reposition for what they expect to be a year of sharper market swings, investors and allocators face a familiar choice: accept the short‑term discomfort of higher dispersion for the prospect of outsized returns, or remain underexposed while opportunities unfold elsewhere.
- https://finance.yahoo.com/news/hedge-funds-state-backed-investors-084745398.html – Please view link – unable to able to access data
- https://www.reuters.com/markets/wealth/hedge-funds-state-backed-investors-bet-volatility-2026-2025-12-09/ – At the Abu Dhabi Finance Week conference, leaders from major hedge funds and state-backed investment groups expressed bullish views on market volatility for 2026, predicting it will yield strong returns. Shiv Srinivasan of the Abu Dhabi Investment Council highlighted global geopolitical tensions and upcoming elections as key sources of volatility, favouring macroeconomic and trend strategies that have already produced a 13% gain for their hedge fund portfolio this year. Similarly, Robyn Grew, CEO of Man Group, and Aron Landy, CEO of Brevan Howard, emphasised that volatility and market dispersion present prime opportunities. They pointed to macro, trend-following strategies, and cryptocurrencies as promising areas for investment. Trend-following CTAs, which thrived in the down markets of 2022, are expected to continue performing well amid ongoing global uncertainties, including the return of Donald Trump to the U.S. presidency and unstable trade policies. Both Grew and Landy underscored that in unpredictable markets, exposure to volatility—especially in interest rate divergence and crypto—is more beneficial than avoiding it.
- https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/man-groups-half-year-profit-slumps-even-assets-under-management-hit-record-193-2025-07-30/ – Man Group reported a 43% decline in core profit for the first half of 2025, falling to $146 million from $257 million a year earlier, largely due to reduced fee income. Despite this, its assets under management (AUM) surged 14% year-on-year to a record $193.3 billion, bolstered by $17.6 billion in net inflows. A single client drove most of this growth with a $13 billion investment into Man Group’s Numeric systematic strategy. The firm also saw strong inflows into its $43 billion credit strategies. Although systematic hedge funds have struggled—down about 10% year-to-date due to volatile markets—Man Group achieved overall positive investment performance. CEO Robyn Grew, who became the company’s first female chief executive in 2023, is restructuring to streamline operations and reduce organisational friction. This includes managing the company’s major systematic fund units, Numeric and AHL, under a unified structure, and the confirmed departure of two senior executives. The company’s stock initially dropped 5.75% on the news but later stabilised.
- https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/man-group-hits-193-bln-record-assets-under-management-profit-slips-2025-07-30/ – Man Group reported a record $193.3 billion in assets under management (AUM) for the first half of 2025, marking a 14% increase from the previous period and an 8% year-on-year rise, surpassing analyst expectations. This record was driven largely by strong net inflows totalling $17.6 billion, up 1,855% year-over-year, fuelled by long-only investment products benefiting from rising asset values. Despite the growth in AUM, the firm’s pre-tax profit fell 43% to $146 million, down from $257 million in the previous year, primarily due to a volatile market environment. CEO Robyn Grew noted that the firm’s investment strategies outperformed in a difficult first half, particularly amid U.S. political uncertainty. Trend-following systematic hedge funds, which rely on algorithms to track market trends, struggled and fell by about 10% through May, according to Societe Generale. However, hedge funds tracked by PivotalPath returned around 11% in the same period, reflecting a mixed performance across the industry.
- https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/trend-hedge-funds-struggle-more-nimble-macro-funds-embrace-whipsawing-markets-2025-06-13/ – As of May 2025, hedge fund returns reveal a significant gap between algorithm-driven trend funds and more agile discretionary macro funds. Systematic trend-following funds, including Systematica, Transtrend, and Aspect Capital, faced steep losses—down 11% to 18.5%—due to volatile markets influenced by unpredictable U.S. policy decisions, notably from President Donald Trump. These funds struggle to latch onto consistent market trends, suffering from reversals in assets like U.S. Treasuries, Australian dollar, Japanese government bonds, and coffee. Conversely, discretionary macro funds, which allow fund managers to pivot strategies and asset choices swiftly, have performed well. Rokos Capital Management gained 9.5%, EDL Capital soared 24%, and Brevan Howard’s Alpha Strategies rose 4.32%. On average, macro traders have historically outperformed managed futures funds. Firms such as Man Group and AQR have used multi-strategy approaches to counterbalance underperforming trend components. For example, AQR’s Apex fund returned 10.6%, while its trend-focused Helix strategy still delivered a 7% gain. Overall, adaptability and discretion have proven advantageous amid turbulent, rapidly shifting financial landscapes in early 2025.
- https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/abu-dhabis-lunate-take-minority-stake-brevan-howard-2025-08-26/ – Abu Dhabi-based alternative investment firm Lunate is acquiring a minority stake in global hedge fund Brevan Howard, as part of a strategic expansion into hedge funds. The two companies plan to launch a joint investment platform in Abu Dhabi, initially capitalised with $2 billion from Lunate, with further funds to be raised from local and international investors. While financial terms of the stake were not disclosed, the deal reflects Abu Dhabi’s broader push into global asset management, fuelled by its substantial sovereign wealth and diversification efforts. Lunate, which manages $110 billion in assets and is linked to Sheikh Tahnoun bin Zayed Al Nahyan, aims to leverage Brevan Howard’s expertise in macroeconomic trading. Founded in 2002, Brevan Howard manages approximately $34 billion and has returned an annualised 8.1% since 2003. It has increasingly shifted operations, including crypto trading, to the UAE due to favourable regulations. Abu Dhabi continues bolstering its financial hub, ADGM, which has attracted global institutions like Bridgewater Associates and Brevan Howard, the latter of which now has its largest office by assets managed there. This move follows other major investments by Abu Dhabi in the asset management sector, including stakes in Fortress and Silver Lake.
- https://www.reuters.com/technology/brevan-howard-says-significant-amount-its-crypto-trading-done-uae-2024-10-21/ – Brevan Howard, a hedge fund managing $35 billion in total strategies, conducts a significant portion of its $2 billion crypto trading operations from the United Arab Emirates (UAE) due to what it describes as the region’s “sensible regulations.” Ryan Taylor, the firm’s group head of compliance, praised UAE regulators for being strict yet collaborative and open to evolving rules to support industry growth. His comments came during the AIM conference in Dubai. Brandon Robinson from JPMorgan Asset Management highlighted investment opportunities in the UAE, signalling ongoing discussions with local hedge fund managers. Jonathan Beardall of the Dubai International Financial Centre Authority noted strong growth in the sector, with hedge funds registered in the DIFC expected to rise from 65 to 70 in the coming weeks. Meanwhile, macroeconomic hedge funds have seen a 3.6% gain year-to-date through September according to research firm Pivotal Path.
Noah Fact Check Pro
The draft above was created using the information available at the time the story first
emerged. We’ve since applied our fact-checking process to the final narrative, based on the criteria listed
below. The results are intended to help you assess the credibility of the piece and highlight any areas that may
warrant further investigation.
Freshness check
Score:
10
Notes:
The narrative is current, published on December 9, 2025, and has not appeared elsewhere. The content is original and not recycled. The article is based on a press release, which typically warrants a high freshness score.
Quotes check
Score:
10
Notes:
The direct quotes from Shiv Srinivasan, Robyn Grew, and Aron Landy are unique to this report, with no earlier matches found. This suggests potentially original or exclusive content.
Source reliability
Score:
10
Notes:
The narrative originates from Reuters, a reputable organisation known for its journalistic standards.
Plausability check
Score:
10
Notes:
The claims about hedge funds and state-backed investors betting on market volatility in 2026 are plausible and align with current market trends. The narrative lacks supporting detail from other reputable outlets, but this is mitigated by the credibility of the source.
Overall assessment
Verdict (FAIL, OPEN, PASS): PASS
Confidence (LOW, MEDIUM, HIGH): HIGH
Summary:
The narrative is current, original, and sourced from a reputable organisation. The quotes are unique, and the claims are plausible, aligning with current market trends. The lack of supporting detail from other reputable outlets is noted but does not significantly impact the overall assessment.