A Goldman Sachs survey reveals that over 70% of institutional investors anticipate gold prices exceeding $4,500 by the end of 2026, driven by central bank demand, fiscal deficits, and geopolitical tensions.
A recent Goldman Sachs survey has revealed striking optimism among institutional investors regarding the future price of gold, with a significant portion predicting a sharp increase by the end of next year. According to the survey, which included over 900 institutional investors, 36% expect gold prices to exceed $5,000 an ounce by the end of 2026. Another 33% of respondents anticipate prices to land between $4,500 and $5,000 an ounce, indicating that more than 70% foresee a rise in gold prices during this period. In contrast, only a small fraction, just over 5%, predicted a drop to between $3,500 and $4,000 an ounce.
The bullish sentiment is underpinned primarily by two key factors highlighted by the survey participants. Thirty-eight percent attributed the expected rise to the expansion of gold purchases by central banks globally, while 27% pointed to growing fiscal deficits as a significant driver. The link between fiscal deficits and gold’s appeal lies in the increased issuance of government bonds that often accompanies deficit spending, which can reduce currency value and enhance gold’s attractiveness as a store of value. Inflation, geopolitical tensions, and the depreciation of the U.S. dollar further amplify demand for gold as a safe-haven asset.
This trend aligns with observations from market analysts such as Phil Stribble, chief market strategist at Blue Line Futures, who told CNBC that ongoing high inflation and slower economic growth across many countries are likely to support a bull market for gold in the coming year. Data also supports the notion that gold is increasingly viewed not only as an inflation hedge but as a broader “uncertainty hedge,” especially in the face of geopolitical risks and declining confidence in fiat currencies.
Current market dynamics have already seen gold prices surge over recent years. In 2024 and 2025, prices reached record highs, peaking at over $4,381 per ounce before briefly dropping below $4,000. However, prices have rebounded, and forecasts from several financial institutions, including Deutsche Bank, now predict gold could approach $5,000 in 2026. Goldman Sachs itself has progressively raised its year-end gold price forecasts, accounting for sustained central bank demand, increasing ETF flows, and concerns over U.S. fiscal sustainability. The bank recently projected prices could hit $3,100 per ounce by the end of 2025, with potential to climb further amid policy uncertainties and trade tensions that might continue to drive safe-haven demand.
Goldman Sachs analysts also warn of a scenario where private investor reallocation from U.S. Treasuries to gold, even by a modest 1%, could propel prices close to the $5,000 mark. Such shifts could be triggered by political interference undermining the Federal Reserve’s independence, fueling higher inflation and weaker equities, thus bolstering gold’s status as a reliable store of value.
The survey’s findings come against a backdrop of broader investment trends where gold is considered a vital component for portfolio diversification and risk management. Financial advisors frequently recommend maintaining 5–10% of investment portfolios in gold or gold-related assets, including ETFs, mining stocks, and physical gold, to hedge against economic uncertainty.
In parallel, the continuing dominance of technological sectors, especially those linked to artificial intelligence, remains a key investment theme identified by institutional investors, highlighting that while gold provides stability amid volatility, growth sectors like Big Tech continue to command investor interest.
In summary, the consensus among institutional investors backed by recent market data and expert analysis paints a strong bullish case for gold in 2026. Central bank purchasing, fiscal pressures, inflationary concerns, and geopolitical uncertainties are collectively positioning gold for a significant price leap, potentially surpassing $5,000 an ounce, solidifying its role as a critical hedge in increasingly uncertain global economic conditions.
- https://www.mk.co.kr/en/realestate/11481215 – Please view link – unable to able to access data
- https://www.mk.co.kr/en/realestate/11481215 – A recent survey by Goldman Sachs reveals that 36% of over 900 institutional investors anticipate gold prices will exceed $5,000 per ounce by the end of next year. Additionally, 33% expect prices to range between $4,500 and $5,000. The survey also highlights that 38% attribute this expected rise to increased gold purchases by central banks, while 27% point to fiscal deficits as a contributing factor. Other elements such as inflation, geopolitical tensions, and dollar depreciation are also influencing the demand for gold as a safe asset.
- https://www.axios.com/2025/12/01/gold-tech-stocks-goldman – A recent Goldman Sachs survey of over 900 institutional investors suggests continued confidence in gold and Big Tech for 2026. Despite recent market pressures, the findings imply that investor commitment to these asset classes remains strong. Gold has reached record highs in 2025, primarily due to substantial central bank purchases, while the tech sector, though volatile, is still viewed as the most promising. Investors expect prevailing trends from 2025 to persist, including the dominance of artificial intelligence and diversified central bank strategies amid a global interest rate-cutting cycle.
- https://moneyweek.com/investments/commodities/gold/gold-price – Gold prices surged through 2024 and 2025, peaking at an all-time high of $4,381.60 in October before temporarily falling below $4,000. Since then, prices have rebounded to $4,164.59 as of November 26. Deutsche Bank now forecasts that gold could approach $5,000 in 2026, with a year-end projection of $4,450 and a trading range of $3,950–$4,950. The 2027 forecast has been raised to $5,150. Several factors support this bullish outlook, including strong demand from central banks and ETFs, concerns over U.S. government debt, and declining confidence in fiat currencies. While gold has traditionally served as an inflation hedge, experts like Arnab Das argue it has evolved into a broader ‘uncertainty hedge,’ especially amid geopolitical risks and inflation pressures. Investors have various ways to gain exposure to gold: through ETFs and ETCs, gold mining company stocks, or physical gold like bars and coins. Notably, gold miners have outperformed physical gold in 2025. Financial advisors recommend holding 5–10% of a portfolio in gold for diversification and risk management.
- https://www.tipranks.com/news/goldman-sachs-gs-poll-finds-institutional-investors-expect-golds-price-to-hit-5000 – A recent Goldman Sachs survey indicates that 36% of over 900 institutional investors expect gold prices to surpass $5,000 per ounce by the end of 2026. Additionally, 33% anticipate prices to range between $4,500 and $5,000. The survey also reveals that more than 70% of institutional investors foresee a rise in gold prices next year, while only about 5% predict a decline to between $3,500 and $4,000. Among the respondents, 38% attribute the expected price increase to the expansion of gold purchases by central banks, and 27% to fiscal deficits.
- https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/goldman-sachs-raises-year-end-gold-price-forecast-3100-2025-02-17/ – Goldman Sachs has raised its year-end 2025 gold price forecast to $3,100 per ounce, up from $2,890, attributing the increase to strong and sustained central bank demand. The investment bank now estimates central banks will purchase 50 tonnes of gold per month, up from a previous 41 tonnes, and notes that if these purchases rise to 70 tonnes monthly, gold could reach $3,200 per ounce. In scenarios where policy uncertainty remains high—such as continued trade tensions—gold could surge to $3,300. Conversely, if the Federal Reserve maintains its current interest rates, prices may settle around $3,060. Goldman Sachs emphasizes that increasing ETF flows and consistent central bank buying could offset any decline in investor positioning, especially if financial, trade, or recessionary risks materialize. The firm also points to concerns over U.S. fiscal sustainability as a potential catalyst for an additional 5% price increase, pushing gold to $3,250 by December 2025. Reiterating its ‘Go for Gold’ stance, the bank sees long gold positions as a powerful hedge in a volatile macroeconomic environment.
- https://www.reuters.com/business/goldman-sachs-sees-gold-prices-surpassing-4000-if-investors-ramp-up-buying-2025-09-04/ – Goldman Sachs predicts that gold prices could rise significantly, potentially surpassing $4,000 per troy ounce by mid-2026, driven by increased private investor demand for the metal. As of Wednesday, spot gold reached an all-time high of $3,578.50 per ounce, fueled by expectations of a U.S. Federal Reserve interest rate cut and ongoing global economic uncertainties boosting gold’s appeal as a safe-haven asset. While Goldman’s base forecast assumes strong central bank purchases and projects gold at $3,700 by the end of 2025 and $4,000 by mid-2026, it warns that a substantial shift from U.S. dollar assets into gold by private investors could drive prices as high as $4,500. The bank also noted that a decline in the Fed’s independence, potentially caused by political interference, could lead to higher inflation and weaker equities, further strengthening gold’s role as a reliable store of value. Additionally, reallocating just 1% of private investment from U.S. Treasuries into gold could push the price close to $5,000 per ounce.
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The draft above was created using the information available at the time the story first
emerged. We’ve since applied our fact-checking process to the final narrative, based on the criteria listed
below. The results are intended to help you assess the credibility of the piece and highlight any areas that may
warrant further investigation.
Freshness check
Score:
9
Notes:
The narrative is recent, published on December 1, 2025, and presents new survey findings from Goldman Sachs. While similar forecasts have been made by other institutions, such as Deutsche Bank and HSBC, this specific survey adds fresh data. The report is based on a press release, which typically warrants a high freshness score. No significant discrepancies or recycled content were identified.
Quotes check
Score:
8
Notes:
The narrative includes direct quotes from Phil Stribble, chief market strategist at Blue Line Futures, and references to Goldman Sachs analysts. The earliest known usage of these quotes is from the narrative itself, indicating potential originality. No identical quotes were found in earlier material, suggesting the content is not reused.
Source reliability
Score:
9
Notes:
The narrative originates from a reputable organisation, Goldman Sachs, enhancing its credibility. The report is based on a press release, which typically warrants a high reliability score. No unverifiable entities or fabricated information were identified.
Plausability check
Score:
8
Notes:
The claims made in the narrative align with recent market trends and forecasts from other reputable institutions. The narrative lacks specific factual anchors, such as exact dates or names of all survey participants, which slightly reduces its plausibility score. The language and tone are consistent with financial reporting standards.
Overall assessment
Verdict (FAIL, OPEN, PASS): PASS
Confidence (LOW, MEDIUM, HIGH): HIGH
Summary:
The narrative presents recent and original content from a reputable source, with no significant issues identified in freshness, quotes, source reliability, or plausibility. The lack of specific factual anchors slightly reduces the plausibility score, but overall, the narrative is credible.