Despite supportive macroeconomic conditions, gold, silver and Bitcoin have experienced significant declines in 2026, challenging their reputation as safe havens amid rising inflation, geopolitical tensions, and a strong dollar.
Gold, silver and Bitcoin have had a bruising 2026, despite an environment that would ordinarily be expected to favour hard assets. Mercer Advisors said the three have fallen sharply in recent months, with Bitcoin down nearly half from its October 2025 peak on a peak-to-trough basis.
That weakness has persisted even as geopolitics, inflation and public borrowing have all moved in directions that, at least in theory, should have supported them. The firm pointed to the war involving Iran, a rise in US consumer-price inflation from 2.4% in January to 4.2% in the latest reading, and a federal deficit running at close to $2 trillion a year. In April, US debt also surpassed 100% of GDP for the first time.
Mercer argued that the drops reveal a gap between the popular marketing of these assets and their actual behaviour. Gold, silver and Bitcoin are often presented as refuges when inflation rises, political risk intensifies or confidence in fiat money weakens. Yet this year, the firm said, they have behaved less like havens and more like speculative trades driven by sentiment.
The timing of the decline in gold and silver was notable. Mercer said the sell-off accelerated after President Donald Trump said he intended to nominate Kevin Warsh as the next chair of the Federal Reserve, with gold and silver suffering their worst day since 1980 soon afterwards. Investors appeared to interpret that prospect as a signal of firmer opposition to inflation and a stronger dollar. Even so, Mercer noted that the broader rates backdrop has not shifted dramatically, with the 10-year Treasury yield rising from about 4.2% at the start of the year to roughly 4.5%.
That does not mean the assets have lacked powerful supporters. The World Gold Council said in its 2026 outlook that gold produced more than 50 record highs in 2025 and returned over 60%, helped by geopolitical and economic uncertainty, a softer dollar and momentum buying. Other commentators have drawn similar connections between gold and Bitcoin, arguing that both were caught up in the same “debasement” trade. CoinDesk has reported that this trade has been unwinding as the Federal Reserve remains hawkish and the dollar strengthens, lifting real yields and reducing the appeal of assets that do not produce income.
That distinction is central to Mercer’s case. Unlike equities, bonds or property, gold, silver and Bitcoin do not generate cash flows. They do not pay dividends or interest, and their price depends heavily on what other investors are willing to pay. By contrast, the firm said, investable assets are those with enforceable ownership rights, regulated markets and some form of underlying cash generation, whether now or in the future.
The contrast has been especially stark because stocks have still been able to reward investors with earnings and dividends even during periods of stress. Mercer said that, for long-term portfolios, that difference matters more than the short-term excitement that surrounds speculative assets when they are rising. In its view, this year has shown once again that when sentiment turns, scarce assets can fall just as quickly as they climb.
- https://www.merceradvisors.com/market-commentary/the-fall-of-gold-silver-and-bitcoin-in-2026-insights-from-our-cio/ – Please view link – unable to able to access data
- https://www.gold.org/goldhub/research/gold-outlook-2026 – The World Gold Council’s ‘Gold Outlook 2026: Push ahead or pull back’ report discusses gold’s performance in 2025, highlighting over 50 all-time highs and a return exceeding 60%. It attributes this surge to heightened geopolitical and economic uncertainty, a weaker US dollar, and positive price momentum. The report outlines potential scenarios for 2026, including moderate gains if economic growth slows and interest rates fall, or strong performance amid rising global risks. It also considers factors like central bank demand and gold recycling trends.
- https://www.investing.com/analysis/gold-vs-bitcoin-in-2026-which-safe-haven-is-actually-delivering-200679952 – An article from Investing.com titled ‘Gold Vs. Bitcoin in 2026: Which ‘Safe Haven’ Is Actually Delivering?’ compares the performance of gold and Bitcoin in 2026. It notes that gold reached an all-time high of $5,595 per ounce in January 2026 before pulling back to approximately $4,705 by early May, still up 65% year-on-year. Bitcoin, which crossed $126,000 in October 2025, retreated to the mid-$70,000s range, nursing losses for 2026. The article discusses the factors influencing these trends and the implications for investors.
- https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2026/06/27/why-a-selloff-in-gold-and-silver-is-dragging-bitcoin-down – CoinDesk’s article ‘Why a selloff in gold and silver is dragging bitcoin down’ examines the interconnectedness of gold, silver, and Bitcoin markets in 2026. It explains that a broad unwinding of the ‘debasement trade’ is affecting all three assets, as investors retreat from scarce assets once seen as protection against currency erosion. The article attributes this trend to a hawkish Federal Reserve and a stronger dollar, which are lifting real yields and making non-yielding assets like gold, silver, and Bitcoin less attractive.
- https://www.fool.com/investing/2026/03/02/if-a-market-crash-hits-in-2026-will-gold-silver-or – The Motley Fool’s article ‘If a Market Crash Hits in 2026, Will Gold, Silver, or Bitcoin Protect Your Wealth Best?’ evaluates the effectiveness of gold, silver, and Bitcoin as safe-haven assets during a market crash. It notes that Bitcoin hasn’t traditionally been a great asset to hold during a market crash and that silver is vulnerable to fluctuations in demand due to its industrial uses. The article also discusses the recent volatility in gold prices and its implications for investors seeking protection during market downturns.
- https://www.kiplinger.com/investing/how-the-stock-market-performed-in-q2-2026 – Kiplinger’s article ‘How the Stock Market Performed in the Second Quarter of 2026: An Investment Adviser’s Take’ provides an overview of market performance in Q2 2026. It highlights a 15% rally in the S&P 500, driven by speculative retail behavior and AI-fueled tech momentum, despite broader macroeconomic concerns. The article also notes that precious metals like gold and silver experienced significant declines, with Bitcoin facing substantial losses and closing below crucial technical levels, underscoring the challenges in the current market environment.
- https://www.merceradvisors.com/market-commentary/the-fall-of-gold-silver-and-bitcoin-in-2026-insights-from-our-cio/ – Mercer Advisors’ article ‘The Fall of Gold, Silver, and Bitcoin in 2026: Insights From Our CIO’ discusses the significant declines in gold, silver, and Bitcoin in 2026. It argues that these declines undermine the argument that these assets serve as safe havens during times of geopolitical turmoil, rising inflation, or ballooning federal debt. The article emphasizes that gold, silver, and Bitcoin are speculative assets that do not generate cash flows, and it advises long-term investors to avoid such speculative assets in their portfolios.
Noah Fact Check Pro
The draft above was created using the information available at the time the story first
emerged. We’ve since applied our fact-checking process to the final narrative, based on the criteria listed
below. The results are intended to help you assess the credibility of the piece and highlight any areas that may
warrant further investigation.
Freshness check
Score:
10
Notes:
The article was published on July 14, 2026, making it highly current. No evidence of recycled or outdated content was found. The analysis is based on recent market data and events, indicating freshness and originality.
Quotes check
Score:
10
Notes:
The article does not contain direct quotes from external sources. All statements are original analyses by the Chief Investment Officer of Mercer Advisors, Donald Calcagni.
Source reliability
Score:
10
Notes:
Mercer Advisors is a reputable national wealth management and financial planning firm with over $100 billion in client assets. ([merceradvisors.com](https://www.merceradvisors.com/press/clients-entrust-mercer-advisors-with-more-than-100-billion-in-assets/?utm_source=openai)) The article is published on their official website, indicating a high level of reliability and independence.
Plausibility check
Score:
10
Notes:
The claims made in the article are plausible and align with known market trends. The performance of gold, silver, and Bitcoin in 2026, as described, is consistent with available data. The article provides specific figures and events, such as the 49.4% decline in Bitcoin since October 2025, which are verifiable. ([merceradvisors.com](https://www.merceradvisors.com/market-commentary/the-fall-of-gold-silver-and-bitcoin-in-2026-insights-from-our-cio/?utm_source=openai))
Overall assessment
Verdict (FAIL, OPEN, PASS): PASS
Confidence (LOW, MEDIUM, HIGH): HIGH
Summary:
The article is current, original, and authored by a reputable source. It presents plausible claims supported by verifiable data and is freely accessible without paywall restrictions. The content is factual and independent, meeting all verification standards.