Goldman Sachs redefines commodities as strategic assets amid geopolitical and technological shifts

When investors think of insurance they often reach for bonds or cash; Goldman Sachs argues they should be thinking about commodities.

In its latest outlook, Goldman Sachs strategists Daan Struyven and Samantha Dart cast commodities as an increasingly strategic layer of portfolio protection, sitting at the intersection of geopolitics, artificial intelligence, electrification and energy security. According to the bank, supply chains that are growing more concentrated, rising U.S.–China competition and geopolitical friction that spills into trade and resources are causing commodities to behave less like cyclical trades and more like insurance assets. The result, Goldman says, is a market defined less by broad index moves and more by sharp divergence beneath the surface.

Gold remains the firm’s highest‑conviction call into 2026. Goldman points to structural demand from central banks, particularly in emerging markets, and argues that the metal’s appeal today is rooted more in sovereignty and insurance than in classic inflation or fear arguments. “We expect central bank gold buying to remain strong in 2026, averaging 70 tonnes per month, close to its 66 tonnes 12‑month average, but 4 times above the 17 tonnes pre‑2022 monthly average” Struyven said. According to Goldman Sachs’ analysis, surveyed reserve managers overwhelmingly expect global gold holdings to rise over the coming 12 months, and the bank projects gold at $4,900 per ounce by December 2026 while forecasting a more modest 6% rise by mid‑2026 in a related note.

Industrial metals present a differentiated picture. Goldman retains a long bias on copper, citing durable demand from electrification, power‑grid upgrades, AI infrastructure and defence spending, against a supply backdrop that is slow to respond because of long mine development lead times and bottlenecks. While the bank expects some pullback from recent record levels in 2026, it still sees copper trading materially higher over the medium term, with long‑run targets as high as $15,000 per tonne by 2035. By contrast, aluminium faces the risk of capacity outpacing demand, driven in part by large Chinese overseas investments, and Goldman recommends a strategic “long copper / short aluminium” stance to capture that divergence.

Energy markets, Goldman says, are being reshaped by supply waves that move at different speeds. The bank forecasts Brent/WTI averages of $56/$52 in 2026 as a final phase of a major oil production wave leaves the market with roughly a 2.0mb/d oversupply, exerting downside pressure in the near term even as balances are expected to tighten later in the decade. Natural gas and liquefied natural gas are set to experience what Goldman terms the largest supply expansion in history. The surge in global LNG capacity through the early 2030s, the bank argues, should keep European and global gas prices under sustained pressure, while rising U.S. exports could paradoxically tighten domestic gas markets and widen the spread between Henry Hub and international benchmarks.

Perhaps the most underappreciated constraint in Goldman’s view is electricity itself. The rapid expansion of AI‑driven data centres is pushing U.S. power demand growth above GDP growth, tightening regional grids and raising the risk of price spikes and reliability shortfalls. “A majority of US regional power markets are already at or below critical spare capacity levels based on our estimates,” Struyven said. The bank contrasts this with China’s continued large‑scale additions to power capacity, warning that U.S. bottlenecks could slow technological progress and create a new form of scarcity that affects both economic growth and geopolitical competitiveness.

Taken together, Goldman’s outlook emphasises differentiation rather than a single commodities macro call. Geopolitics, supply concentration and technological change are creating distinct winners and losers across metals, energy and power markets. The practical challenge for investors, the bank argues, is not merely forecasting whether commodities broadly will rise or fall but identifying which materials will become essential to national security and technological leadership, and which will see their leverage erode as supply outpaces demand.

Market observers and other outlets reporting on Goldman’s work have echoed the core forecasts: strong central bank buying supporting gold to year‑end targets near $4,900; an interim moderation in copper in 2026 but structurally higher longer‑term prices; and weaker oil and European gas prices next year as major supply waves run their course. The bank’s analysis reframes commodities as strategic assets for portfolios in an era of geopolitical competition and accelerating technological demand.