Investors eye 2026 with focus on substance amid cautious global outlook

Global investors preparing for 2026 are weighing a mix of structural supports and acknowledged risks, according to an analysis that builds on commentary from deVere Group alongside multilateral forecasts.

According to the original report by deVere Group’s chief executive Nigel Green, three credible tailwinds are beginning to shape the investment landscape for 2026. He argues that “Markets reward evidence over enthusiasm” and that investors are moving to distinguish “between stories and substance.” The first tailwind, he says, is the persistence of global economic growth that is broader than in recent years, even if it remains uneven. “Current projections continue to point toward expansion rather than contraction, with resilience in the US, gradual improvement across Europe, and ongoing structural growth in parts of Asia,” he told the original outlet. He added that large-scale fiscal spending on infrastructure, defence, supply‑chain security and industrial policy is filtering through economies with long lags, providing a steady underpinning for activity.

That constructive framing sits beside, and at times contrasts with, official multilateral forecasts. The OECD’s June 2025 Economic Outlook and its March 2025 interim report both project global growth slowing from 3.3% in 2024 to about 2.9% in 2025 and 2026, and they warn that elevated trade costs and policy uncertainty are maintaining inflationary pressures in many economies, including the United States. The IMF’s October 2025 World Economic Outlook likewise signals a modest slowdown, with global growth below pre‑pandemic averages. The World Bank’s June 2025 Global Economic Prospects offers a more cautious note, projecting even weaker expansion and emphasising downgrades to many developing economies’ forecasts. These official assessments underline that resilience can coexist with slower trend rates and that policy action will be important to sustain momentum.

The second tailwind highlighted by Nigel Green is the evolution of AI and automation from a valuation story to measurable operational impact. He argues that “After an initial phase dominated by capital spending and valuation expansion, 2026 is shaping up as a period where scrutiny intensifies,” and that “Markets are demanding proof.” The practical implication for investors is a greater focus on companies that can demonstrate margin gains, cost reduction or scalable revenue from AI deployment rather than those relying on promise alone. Industry data and recent corporate reporting indicate that productivity improvements are emerging beyond a handful of technology leaders , in healthcare, logistics, manufacturing and financial services , supporting the view that modest, widespread gains can add meaningful economic support over time.

The third tailwind is a partial return to meaningful diversification. Nigel Green notes that “For much of the past decade, global returns have been dominated by a narrow segment of US assets, diminishing the effectiveness of diversified portfolios,” and says that dynamic is shifting as valuations across regions become less stretched and some fixed‑income real yields improve. Multilateral forecasts and market data support the idea that regional dispersion is rising: some markets and asset classes are likely to outperform while others lag, so “selectivity becomes critical,” he warns. Currency moves are also likely to reassert themselves as a source of returns and risks when growth is more distributed.

The picture is therefore one of conditional opportunity rather than a clear‑cut bull case. As Nigel Green emphasises, “These tailwinds do not eliminate risk. They provide structure.” Investors are advised to combine realism with disciplined, global analysis , seeking evidence of durable growth, measurable technology gains and careful asset selection , rather than chasing narratives alone.

Government and central‑bank policy responses will be a key determinant of outcomes. The OECD, IMF and World Bank reports all stress the need for policy action to safeguard macroeconomic stability as growth slows and inflationary pressures persist. In practice, that means investors should monitor fiscal plans, trade‑policy developments and central‑bank guidance alongside corporate proof points for technology investment when positioning for 2026.

In short, the coming year looks set to reward companies and portfolios that can demonstrate substance: persistent , if modest , growth, tangible productivity improvements from automation, and disciplined diversification that recognises rising dispersion.