According to Saxo’s Investor Forecast Q1 2026, Japanese shares are increasingly viewed as a promising market, with investors cautious yet optimistic amid global tensions and valuation concerns.
Investors surveyed by Saxo are showing measured optimism for the months ahead, with Japan emerging as the most favoured equity market, the firm’s latest Investor Forecast Q1 2026 finds. The poll of more than 1,600 clients across ten markets shows a stronger tilt toward Japanese shares than toward the United States, despite lingering concerns about stretched valuations and geopolitical risks.
According to the report by Saxo, 63% of respondents expect Japan’s equity market to rise over the next six months, outpacing the 57% who are positive on global equities and the 40% who foresee gains for the US market. The survey highlights sharper bullishness among certain demographics: investors aged 36–60 in the UK register particularly high confidence in Japan, and younger participants and women in several regions tend to express greater optimism than older male cohorts.
“Investors are clearly walking a fine line between optimism and caution,” said Charu Chanana, Chief Investment Strategist at Saxo. “While all sentiment in this survey needs to be caveated with it being conducted in the days leading up to the US and Israel attacks on Iran. That and the ensuing hardship is bound to have changed sentiment for many investors. But, the standout result from this survey is the strong confidence in Japan compared with other major markets. While many investors remain wary of stretched valuations, particularly in the US, Japan is increasingly seen as a market where structural reforms and corporate improvements could continue to drive upside.
“More broadly, the results show investors are not rushing to make dramatic portfolio changes despite geopolitical tensions and rapid technological change. Instead, most appear to be sticking with their existing strategies while keeping a close eye on potential risks.”
The Saxo data also indicate that most respondents are not planning wholesale reallocations: 63% intend to keep their current exposure to regions, sectors and asset classes, while 27% plan to broaden into new areas. Overvaluation is the single largest driver of potential strategy changes, with nearly eight in ten respondents in the MENA region citing concerns that markets may be overstretched. Political developments are also on investors’ radars, with a majority noting the possible influence of US policy on portfolios.
Saxo’s country-by-country breakdown points to divergent national sentiment shaping investor behaviour. The US shows the widest split in outlooks, whereas markets such as Japan, Singapore and the UK display stronger collective optimism. The firm’s Japan-focused notes further reveal that Japanese respondents themselves view artificial intelligence as both a notable opportunity and a risk, and remain attentive to the potential spillovers from US policy.
Independent asset manager analyses reinforce the caution underpinning Saxo’s findings. M&G Investments’ Q1 2026 outlook warns of a market divided between hype and hesitancy, arguing that earnings performance will be a key determinant of returns this year and that elevated prices in some technology segments could eventually damp demand. J.P. Morgan Asset Management similarly flags lofty valuations across major markets, saying continued earnings strength , led by AI-driven growth , helps justify current multiples but also argues for diversification, rotation away from highly concentrated positions and a tilt toward defensive, income-generating or value-oriented areas to manage volatility.
Taken together, the survey and professional market commentary sketch a picture in which Japan is viewed as a comparatively attractive destination amid wider uncertainty, but one that investors approach with a degree of prudence. Saxo’s findings suggest many market participants prefer incremental adjustments over radical shifts, balancing the search for opportunity in places like Japan against concern about valuation excesses and geopolitical shocks.
- https://menews247.com/more-than-60-of-mena-investors-bet-big-on-japan-amid-global-market-caution/ – Please view link – unable to able to access data
- https://www.home.saxo/content/commentaries/pr/press-release/saxo-investor-forecast-investors-most-bullish-on-japan-despite-broader-caution-on-global-markets-01042026 – Saxo’s Investor Forecast Q1 2026 reveals that investors globally maintain a cautiously optimistic outlook, with the strongest confidence directed towards Japan’s equity market. The survey, encompassing over 1,600 responses across ten markets, indicates that nearly two-thirds (63%) of respondents expect the Japanese equity market to increase in value over the next six months, surpassing other major markets. This confidence contrasts with 57% expecting gains in the global market and just 40% predicting an increase in the US market. The optimism towards Japan is particularly pronounced among UK investors aged 36–60, with over 76% anticipating a rise in the Japanese market. The survey also highlights that younger investors and women in the region are generally more optimistic, with 73% of men and 33% of women in MENA expecting the global equity market to rise over the coming six months. The findings suggest that investors view Japan as offering comparatively attractive opportunities amid broader concerns about valuations and macroeconomic risks elsewhere. Charu Chanana, Chief Investment Strategist at Saxo, notes that while the survey was conducted prior to recent geopolitical events, the strong confidence in Japan remains a standout result, with structural reforms and corporate improvements seen as potential drivers for upside.
- https://www.home.saxo/content/articles/client-report/saxo-investor-forecast-01042026 – Saxo’s Investor Forecast Q1 2026, based on 1,669 respondents across ten markets, indicates a broadly optimistic six-month outlook, led by confidence in Japan and the global equity market, and moderated by a comparatively cautious stance toward the US. The survey reveals that 63% of respondents expect the Japanese equity market to increase in value over the next six months, surpassing other major markets. Confidence in the global market is also robust, with 57% expecting gains. The European outlook is positive though more measured, with 51% anticipating an increase, while local markets show slightly less optimism at 48%. In contrast, the US market carries the lowest share expecting gains at 40%, with 34% expecting a decline. The survey also highlights gender and age differences, with women consistently more upbeat than men across the headline markets. For instance, 62% of women expect the global equity market to rise over the coming six months, compared with 57% of men. Similarly, younger investors aged 18–35 are more positive about global and European markets than older cohorts. These findings suggest that while global investors display a constructive stance, there are notable variations in optimism, diversification behaviour, macro sensitivities, and the role of gender and age across different markets.
- https://www.home.saxo/content/articles/client-report/saxo-investor-forecast—japan-01042026 – Saxo’s Investor Forecast Q1 2026 reveals that Japanese investors display a pronounced dual view on artificial intelligence (AI)—both as an opportunity and a risk—alongside sustained attention to US policy, while valuation concerns remain broadly consistent with the global picture. The survey indicates that 73% of Japanese respondents consider AI-driven opportunities, and 70% are concerned about AI-related risks. Additionally, 67% are attentive to the potential impacts of US policies. These findings suggest that Japanese investors are navigating a complex landscape, balancing optimism about technological advancements with caution regarding potential risks and external policy influences. The survey also highlights that women in Japan register higher responses than men on both AI-driven opportunities and AI-related concerns, and also cite overvaluation more often. By age, AI opportunity is strongest among those aged 18–35, while concerns about US policy impacts remain high across all cohorts. European defence needs are most salient among younger investors compared with older groups. These insights underscore the nuanced perspectives of Japanese investors as they consider various macroeconomic and technological factors in their investment strategies.
- https://www.home.saxo/content/articles/client-report/saxo-investor-forecast—country-comparisons-01042026 – Saxo’s multi-market investor survey reveals notable differences in investor outlooks across countries, highlighting variations in optimism, diversification behaviour, macro sensitivities, and the role of gender and age. While global investors collectively display a constructive stance, anchored by confidence in Japan and the global equity market, the country-to-country differences show striking variations. For instance, the US market reveals the widest divergence, with Japan, Singapore, and the UK showing strong optimism, while France, Italy, Denmark, and the Netherlands are notably more cautious. This divergence underscores how exposure, political sentiment, and media narratives shape national investment psychology. Regarding diversification, the UK and Singapore exhibit a strong inclination to add new regions, sectors, or asset classes, well above the global average, reflecting a higher appetite for opportunity and a lower tendency to stand still. In contrast, other countries display more continuity in their diversification strategies. The survey also highlights that women are more sensitive to technology risks and policy issues, with AI-related concerns consistently higher among women across many markets. These insights provide a layered picture of how culture, experience, and market structure influence investor expectations and behaviours across different countries.
- https://www.mandg.com/investments/professional-investor/en-sg/insights/mandg-insights/latest-insights/2026/01/strat-eq-na-quarterly-equities-and-multi-asset-outlook-q1-2026 – M&G Investments’ Q1 2026 Equity & Multi-Asset Market Outlook discusses the polarisation between hype and hesitation in the markets. The report highlights that earnings delivery versus expectations will likely be the key driver of performance in 2026. It notes that while earnings momentum from a number of technology stocks remains very strong, there is a risk that higher prices may lead to demand destruction, as customers may be reluctant to pay higher prices for consumer electronics, PCs, and mobile phones. The report also points out that in Asia Pacific ex-Japan, a number of stocks perceived as quality, steady growth companies have been de-rated materially in the last 18 months, despite steady earnings delivery. This suggests that while there are opportunities, investors should be cautious and consider the potential impact of demand destruction on valuations and market performance.
- https://am.jpmorgan.com/hk/en/asset-management/liq/insights/market-insights/market-updates/bulletins/market-outlook-2026/are-the-current-rich-global-equity-valuations-justified/ – J.P. Morgan Asset Management’s analysis indicates that valuations across major equity markets remain elevated, with the S&P 500 and Asia Pacific ex-Japan trading well above historical averages, prompting investor caution as they consider positioning for 2026. The report highlights that robust earnings growth, especially driven by AI adoption, continues to support high valuations, with U.S. tech megacaps leading earnings expansion and AI demand broadening globally, benefiting Asian corporates and driving further earnings upgrades. For 2026, the analysis suggests that investors should focus on diversification and rotation, reducing concentration in overvalued sectors, and consider defensive, income-generating, and value-oriented areas to help manage volatility and uncertainty as growth momentum slows and trade policy risks persist. This approach aligns with the cautious optimism observed in Saxo’s Investor Forecast, where investors express confidence in Japan’s equity market amid broader concerns about valuations and macroeconomic risks elsewhere.
Noah Fact Check Pro
The draft above was created using the information available at the time the story first
emerged. We’ve since applied our fact-checking process to the final narrative, based on the criteria listed
below. The results are intended to help you assess the credibility of the piece and highlight any areas that may
warrant further investigation.
Freshness check
Score:
8
Notes:
The article was published on April 2, 2026, which is recent. However, the content appears to be a summary of Saxo Bank’s Investor Forecast Q1 2026, which may have been released earlier. The exact release date of the Saxo report is not specified, raising concerns about the freshness of the information.
Quotes check
Score:
7
Notes:
The article includes direct quotes attributed to Charu Chanana, Chief Investment Strategist at Saxo. However, these quotes cannot be independently verified through the provided sources, as the Saxo report itself is not accessible. This lack of verifiability raises concerns about the authenticity of the quotes.
Source reliability
Score:
5
Notes:
The article originates from Middle East News 247, a niche publication. The lack of access to the original Saxo report and the reliance on a secondary source diminishes the reliability of the information presented.
Plausibility check
Score:
6
Notes:
The claims about MENA investors’ optimism towards Japan’s equity market align with general market trends. However, without access to the original Saxo report, it’s difficult to assess the accuracy and context of these claims, raising questions about their validity.
Overall assessment
Verdict (FAIL, OPEN, PASS): FAIL
Confidence (LOW, MEDIUM, HIGH): MEDIUM
Summary:
The article presents information about MENA investors’ optimism towards Japan’s equity market based on Saxo Bank’s Investor Forecast Q1 2026. However, the lack of access to the original Saxo report, the inability to independently verify quotes, and the reliance on a secondary source raise significant concerns about the accuracy and reliability of the information presented. Given these issues, the content cannot be fully verified, leading to a ‘FAIL’ assessment with medium confidence.