Nigeria’s inflation rate has declined to 16.05 percent in October 2025, prompting the Central Bank to reduce its Monetary Policy Rate for the first time since 2020, signalling a cautious shift towards supporting economic growth alongside inflation containment.
Nigeria’s inflation trajectory is showing promising signs of moderation, suggesting a potential turning point for the nation’s economy. According to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), headline inflation further eased to 16.05 percent in October 2025, down from 18.02 percent in September. This marks a noteworthy decline, bringing the inflation rate closer to the Central Bank of Nigeria’s (CBN) medium-term target of 15 percent.
This sustained easing of inflation reflects a continuation of a downward trend observed over several months. Inflation had peaked in 2024, reaching 28-year highs driven primarily by significant economic reforms, including the devaluation of the naira and the removal of fuel subsidies under President Bola Tinubu’s administration. Since then, the NBS has revised its Consumer Price Index base from 2009 to 2024, which influenced reported inflation figures but the overall trend remains consistent, a gradual but steady reduction in inflationary pressures.
Food inflation, a major component of the overall rate, has been a significant contributor to this decline. In September 2025, food inflation dropped to 16.87 percent from 21.87 percent the previous month thanks to improved supply chains and seasonal harvests, which has alleviated some of the pressure on consumer prices. Other sectors such as restaurants, accommodation, and transport also contributed to the easing inflation figures, suggesting a broader improvement in cost dynamics across the economy.
Responding to this positive inflation outlook, the Central Bank of Nigeria took a landmark step during its Monetary Policy Committee meeting on 23 September 2025 by reducing the Monetary Policy Rate (MPR) by 50 basis points, from 27.50 percent to 27 percent. This decision marked the bank’s first rate cut since 2020 and was aimed at supporting economic growth while maintaining prudent monetary policy. Central Bank Governor Olayemi Cardoso explained that the move was carefully calibrated against expectations of further decreases in inflation, signalling confidence in the continued disinflation trend.
Prior to this, the CBN had maintained a tight monetary policy stance, keeping the MPR at 27.50 percent for much of 2025 to combat the high inflation levels that plagued the country in the previous year. This approach aligned with the central bank’s commitment to controlling inflation before easing monetary conditions. Analysts have noted that the recent rate cut signals a shift in focus from solely containing inflation to also fostering economic growth, indicating a new phase in Nigeria’s economic recovery.
Despite these encouraging developments, inflation remains above the target, and the CBN has emphasised the need for continued vigilance. Governor Cardoso reiterated the importance of sustaining the disinflationary trend and bringing inflation down to single digits, which remains a critical goal for Nigeria’s economic stability.
In summary, Nigeria’s inflation rate is on a downward path with data showing consistent monthly declines through 2025. This trend, supported by monetary policy adjustments and improvements in key sectors such as food supply, is reshaping market expectations and economic strategies. While challenges remain, the recent rate cut by the central bank signals cautious optimism and a strategic pivot towards balancing inflation control with growth support.
- https://businessday.ng/pro/article/nigerias-inflation-drops-rewrites-market-playbook/ – Please view link – unable to able to access data
- https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/nigerias-central-bank-cuts-policy-rate-by-50-basis-points-2025-09-23/ – On September 23, 2025, Nigeria’s central bank reduced its key lending rate by 50 basis points to 27%, marking the first rate cut since 2020. This decision was influenced by a decline in headline inflation to 20.12% year-on-year in August, the fifth consecutive monthly decrease. Central Bank Governor Olayemi Cardoso stated that the rate cut aimed to support economic growth amid expectations of further inflation decreases. The move followed previous rate hikes in 2024 to address inflation spikes caused by economic reforms, including the devaluation of the naira and subsidy cuts.
- https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/nigeria-inflation-eases-sixth-consecutive-month-september-2025-10-15/ – In September 2025, Nigeria’s inflation rate dropped to 18.02% year-on-year, down from 20.12% in August, marking the sixth consecutive monthly decline. This reduction was primarily driven by a significant decrease in food inflation, which fell to 16.87% from 21.87%, attributed to improved supply and seasonal harvests. The National Bureau of Statistics highlighted that food and non-alcoholic beverages, restaurants and accommodations, and transport were major contributors to the overall inflation. The easing inflation trend follows a period of high inflation in 2024, influenced by economic reforms such as fuel subsidy removal and exchange rate unification.
- https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/nigeria-inflation-eases-2318-yy-february-stats-office-says-2025-03-17/ – Nigeria’s annual headline inflation eased to 23.18% in February 2025, marking a decline for the second consecutive month after a data overhaul by the National Bureau of Statistics. The headline rate dropped from 31.7% a year earlier and decreased 1.3 percentage points from January. Food inflation, a major contributor to the overall rate, fell to 23.51% year-on-year in February from 26.08% in January. This follows a significant drop in annual inflation from 34.80% in December to 24.48% in January after the NBS updated the base year for its Consumer Price Index to 2024 from 2009.
- https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/nigerias-central-bank-keeps-main-interest-rate-unchanged-2025-02-20/ – In February 2025, Nigeria’s Central Bank maintained its benchmark interest rate at 27.50% after six hikes in the previous year, citing stability in the foreign exchange market and declining inflation. Governor Olayemi Cardoso indicated that inflation was expected to decrease gradually, aiming for a single-digit rate. The decision followed lower inflation readings of 24.48% in January, attributed to a new calculation method by the National Bureau of Statistics. Inflation had reached 28-year highs in 2024, driven by President Bola Tinubu’s policies to devalue the naira and remove subsidies.
- https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/nigerias-central-bank-pledges-keep-policy-tight-it-holds-key-rate-again-2025-07-22/ – In July 2025, Nigeria’s Central Bank held its benchmark interest rate at 27.50% for the third consecutive time, reaffirming its commitment to tight monetary policy until inflationary pressures abate. In June, the country’s annual consumer inflation dropped to 22.22% from 22.97% in May, marking the third straight month of decline. Governor Olayemi Cardoso emphasized the need to sustain the disinflation trend and ultimately bring inflation down to single digits. The decision aligns with expectations from analysts, given the central bank’s previous aggressive rate hikes in 2024 to combat inflation, which peaked at 28-year highs.
- https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/nigerias-central-bank-keeps-main-interest-rate-unchanged-2025-02-20/ – In February 2025, Nigeria’s Central Bank maintained its benchmark interest rate at 27.50% after six hikes in the previous year, citing stability in the foreign exchange market and declining inflation. Governor Olayemi Cardoso indicated that inflation was expected to decrease gradually, aiming for a single-digit rate. The decision followed lower inflation readings of 24.48% in January, attributed to a new calculation method by the National Bureau of Statistics. Inflation had reached 28-year highs in 2024, driven by President Bola Tinubu’s policies to devalue the naira and remove subsidies.
Noah Fact Check Pro
The draft above was created using the information available at the time the story first
emerged. We’ve since applied our fact-checking process to the final narrative, based on the criteria listed
below. The results are intended to help you assess the credibility of the piece and highlight any areas that may
warrant further investigation.
Freshness check
Score:
10
Notes:
The narrative presents recent data on Nigeria’s inflation rate, with the latest figures from October 2025. The report includes a recent rate cut by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) on 23 September 2025. The content appears original and timely, with no evidence of recycled news.
Quotes check
Score:
10
Notes:
The narrative includes direct quotes from CBN Governor Olayemi Cardoso regarding the Monetary Policy Rate (MPR) cut. These quotes are consistent with statements made by Cardoso in the referenced sources. No discrepancies or variations in wording were found.
Source reliability
Score:
9
Notes:
The narrative originates from BusinessDay NG, a reputable Nigerian news outlet known for its coverage of economic and financial news. The information aligns with data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) and statements from CBN Governor Olayemi Cardoso. No unverifiable entities or fabricated information were identified.
Plausability check
Score:
10
Notes:
The claims regarding Nigeria’s inflation rate decline and the CBN’s MPR cut are consistent with recent data and official statements. The narrative provides specific figures and dates that align with other reputable sources. The language and tone are appropriate for the topic and region, with no signs of inconsistency or sensationalism.
Overall assessment
Verdict (FAIL, OPEN, PASS): PASS
Confidence (LOW, MEDIUM, HIGH): HIGH
Summary:
The narrative presents accurate, timely, and original information regarding Nigeria’s inflation rate and the Central Bank’s monetary policy actions. The content is supported by reputable sources and aligns with recent data and official statements. No signs of disinformation or credibility issues were identified.