Optimism rises for 2026 as logistics sector gears up for selective M&A resurgence

New York , As dealmakers gathered for the Benesch Investing in the Transportation & Logistics Industry Conference in early December, a striking contrast emerged between a difficult 2025 for many asset‑based trucking businesses and rising optimism for 2026 among buyers and investors.

“We’re almost can’t give away asset‑based trucking companies this year. It’s been a very, very, very difficult year for asset‑based trucking, and that doesn’t make a difference if it’s asset‑based trucking with transportation brokerage along with it. I can’t do it,” Ron Lentz, managing partner of Logisyn Advisors, told the Benesch panel on M&A Outlook 2026, according to FreightWaves. Yet Lentz added: “I think it’s going to be a banner year. There’s way too much capital out there.” The room, he said, was populated by sponsors who “have either just raised a new fund or are in the process of raising a fund. So from the sponsor point of view, there’s a ton of capital and they’ve got to spend that capital.”(FreightWaves)

That tension , current earnings pressure but abundant dry powder , framed much of the discussion. Richard Holohan, on the same panel, said the freight recession had complicated valuation consensus but that recent months had seen some dislocations clear and activity increase. Ryan Cech of Imperative Logistics Group pointed to a second structural factor: organic growth has proved “next to impossible,” pushing many buyers to pursue acquisitions as the quickest growth route. “The financials have been flat for the last three years,” he said, noting buyers’ need to pursue M&A as an alternative to weak organic expansion.(FreightWaves)

Where buyers are looking has shifted. Customs brokerages and freight forwarders were repeatedly cited as attractive targets because of their tariff and trade‑compliance expertise. “We spent a lot of time in the last year looking at customs brokers,” Cech said. “They’re certainly having a moment in that tariff environment.” That capability to mitigate duty exposure and navigate shifting trade rules is a tangible, fee‑generating service that buyers value amid trade policy uncertainty.(FreightWaves)

Broader market context supports cautious optimism for renewed deal flow in 2026. PwC analysts expect M&A activity in trucking and transportation to pick up next year as borrowing costs fall following anticipated interest‑rate cuts, a change that would revive deferred transactions and ease corporate spending constraints. PwC warned, however, that cheaper capital may intensify competition for logistics and infrastructure assets as more buyers return to the market.(Transport Topics)

Sectoral winners and structural tailwinds

Not all subsectors have suffered equally. Industry data cited by IMAP shows warehousing and fulfilment was a bright spot in 2024, with M&A rising 19% year‑on‑year and 50 transactions announced or closed. Private equity’s elevated capital levels , reinforced by late‑2024 interest‑rate relief , drove much of that resilience, though IMAP cautioned deal volumes remain below pre‑recession norms and will likely hinge on a sustained freight recovery and more stable trade policy.(IMAP)

Market research firms forecast continued expansion in contract logistics, with a global market projected to grow from about $192.2 billion in 2025 to $199.3 billion in 2026. Analysts point to rising outsourcing , roughly 40% of shippers now use external logistics providers , and growing demand for value‑added services as structural supports for M&A and strategic investment in fulfilment and third‑party logistics capacity.(Global Growth Insights)

Technology and integration as competitive currency

Buyers are also paying up for capabilities that de‑risk trade complexity and drive margin. A Descartes Systems Group study found 55% of freight forwarders and customs brokers view implementing new technologies as the top strategy for growth; 67% said technology was “fundamental or highly important” to expansion. That emphasis on automation, data‑driven compliance and AI‑enabled workflows is helping explain the premium for brokers and forwarders that combine trade expertise with modern platforms.(Food Logistics/Descartes)

Strategic buyers have cash on their balance sheets as well, according to Logisyn’s Lentz, increasing the pool of potential acquirers beyond private equity. That mix of strategic and financial demand echoes McKinsey’s analysis of a sector still correcting from sharply reduced deal volume and deal size in 2023, but where selective, cross‑border and capability‑driven deals have continued , notably by players seeking to build end‑to‑end offerings and regional supply‑chain positions.(McKinsey)

Integration and human capital

Panels at the Benesch event emphasised that getting deals to work post‑close remains a central challenge. Rebecca White, executive vice‑president of strategy and corporate development at KAG, said about three‑quarters of the transactions her company completes are with owners selling because they are retiring; KAG typically asks founders to remain for six to 12 months to aid transition. Spencer Tenney of the Tenney Group highlighted the importance of promoting and retaining managers in recapitalisations, saying private equity partners are increasingly measured in head‑count reductions and more focused on long‑term integration to preserve capability and institutional knowledge.(FreightWaves)

What could derail the rebound

Despite the constructive case for 2026, a number of constraints could temper activity. Continued freight weakness would keep seller expectations and buyer valuations misaligned, sustaining the pricing friction that depressed deal activity in prior years. Trade‑policy volatility and tariff uncertainty remain a risk for cross‑border deals absent clearer frameworks. And, as PwC noted, the return of cheaper capital may bring more bidders to the table, lifting valuations and complicating deal execution for mid‑market buyers.

Outlook

Taken together, the picture presented at Benesch and reflected in sector reports is one of selective opportunity amid structural change. Private equity’s dry powder, strategic balance‑sheet cash and improving financing conditions could combine to make 2026 materially busier than the past 18 months, particularly for targets that offer trade expertise, fulfilment scale or technology‑enabled services. Yet dealmakers will continue to weigh legacy asset‑based trucking exposure, fragile freight fundamentals and geopolitical trade risks when setting price and pace.

According to the Spring 2025 M&A Logistics Insights report by MCF, positioning and capability‑led M&A will be a distinguishing factor for successful transactions as markets normalise, reinforcing the conference message that next year’s activity will favour buyers and assets that solve current shippers’ pain points rather than simply adding fleet or footprint.(MCF)