PitchBook’s new VC Emerging Opportunities study employs a data-first approach, integrating machine learning and macroeconomic analysis to identify promising early-stage technology sectors, with SaaS and defence technology leading the charge amidst shifting market dynamics.
PitchBook’s new VC Emerging Opportunities study offers a data-first method for comparing early-stage technology sectors, blending machine-learning outputs with macroeconomic context to help investors weigh risk and return across seed to Series B companies.
Authored by Andrew Akers, CFA, and Susan Hu, the analysis evaluates more than 25,000 firms with at least two prior venture rounds and uses the firm’s VC Exit Predictor to estimate probabilities of acquisition, IPO or no exit for individual companies before aggregating those signals by vertical. According to the report, the cross-vertical annualised expected return, presented as a historical baseline rather than a forward forecast, stands at 21.2%.
Software-as-a-service emerges as the clearest outperformer. PitchBook’s modelling places SaaS well above the cross-vertical mean, driven by both a high probability of successful exits and a deep opportunity set. The vertical also shows sustained engagement from top-tier investors, supporting valuation resilience even as broader deal patterns shift.
Defence technology occupies the second rank, benefiting from accelerating employee growth and strong elite-investor participation that underpins the sector’s rising valuations. PitchBook records defence tech’s median pre-money value as the highest among verticals and highlights meaningful year-over-year gains in expected returns as deployment momentum translates into commercial scaling.
Artificial intelligence retains a dominant role by volume. The report finds AI produced the largest absolute deal value in the trailing 12 months, capturing a substantial share of published patents and sustaining first-time financings despite a wider decline in new-company rounds. PitchBook warns, however, that returns in AI remain concentrated: scale and momentum coexist with elevated valuation scrutiny.
Other segments show a range of outcomes. Cybersecurity and supply-chain technology sit in neutral-to-positive territory, with cybersecurity demonstrating solid median valuations and supply-chain tech posting one of the steepest valuation increases year on year. Climate tech approximates the cross-vertical average, aided by patent-share growth even as deal counts remain flat. By contrast, agriculture technology, gaming and healthtech lag the aggregated benchmark, with agtech experiencing contracting deal value and gaming seeing a marked fall in new-company fundraises despite selective valuation upticks tied to AI tooling.
PitchBook’s dataset also captures broader market dynamics. Trailing 12-month early-stage deal value rose across verticals while median pre-money valuations climbed notably, yet first-time financings declined substantially, a pattern the report interprets as heightened investor selectivity amid residual macro uncertainty. The authors emphasise that relative performance measures, those that strip out economy-wide influences such as interest-rate moves, offer the most reliable signal for distinguishing durable sectoral opportunity.
The Emerging Opportunities analysis sits alongside PitchBook’s wider 2026 outlook series and related research that together frame venture markets as entering a more measured phase. According to PitchBook’s 2026 Outlook, stabilising interest-rate conditions and a wave of AI-driven innovation underpin a cautiously optimistic view for private markets. A separate PitchBook survey with Web Summit cited by the firm indicates investor conviction in AI’s disruptive potential has climbed sharply and that many investors are already integrating AI into evaluation workflows.
The report’s findings intersect with other industry trends that affect allocation choices. PitchBook’s gender-focused All In reports note growing funding flows to female-founded companies in recent years, suggesting pockets of robust activity and exits within the ecosystem. At the same time, PitchBook and market trackers report persistent fundraising headwinds for smaller, emerging venture managers: capital concentration among the largest firms has tightened, and fund closings for managers under $250m in assets under management remain subdued relative to prior cycles, complicating the landscape for new fund formation and limiting LP diversification options.
Taken together, PitchBook’s dual-lens approach, pairing bottom-up exit probabilities with top-down macro context, offers limited partners and GPs an empirical framework to prioritise sectors with improving exit odds, rising valuations and clear innovation signals. The study implies a pragmatic allocation stance: favour verticals that combine strong exit economics and durable investor interest, recognise where scale-driven concentration raises portfolio idiosyncrasy risk, and account for the constrained fundraising environment that may narrow access to high-conviction managers.
- https://www.crowdfundinsider.com/2026/02/264114-emerging-opportunities-in-venture-capital-ecosystem-analyzed-in-new-report/ – Please view link – unable to able to access data
- https://www.crowdfundinsider.com/2026/02/264114-emerging-opportunities-in-venture-capital-ecosystem-analyzed-in-new-report/ – PitchBook’s latest analysis, the VC Emerging Opportunities report, provides a quantitative framework for evaluating key technology verticals. Authored by Andrew Akers, CFA, and Susan Hu, the study combines machine-learning predictions from the firm’s VC Exit Predictor model with macroeconomic indicators to help investors assess risks and returns in seed-to-Series B companies. The report examines over 25,000 early-stage companies across various sectors, including AI, SaaS, fintech, climate tech, healthtech, gaming, cybersecurity, defense tech, agtech, medtech, and supply chain tech. Overall, trailing 12-month early-stage deal value rose 17.5% across verticals, while median pre-money valuations climbed 28.8%. First-time financings, however, fell 19%, indicating greater investor selectivity amid economic uncertainty. Using the VC Exit Predictor, the report projects a cross-vertical average annualized expected return of 21.2%. SaaS leads decisively, outperforming the average by 4.6 percentage points with a 72.1% successful-exit probability. Defense tech follows closely, posting the second-largest year-over-year improvement in expected returns (+2.7 points) and an aggregate 24% return outlook. AI ranks in the upper tier (+0.8% above average) despite ongoing debates about valuation exuberance. Cybersecurity (+1.0%) and supply chain tech (+0.9%) occupy neutral-to-positive positions, with cybersecurity showing valuation strength ($62.3 million median) and supply chain tech posting the largest valuation expansion (+49.9% TTM). Climate tech sits near the average (-0.2%), benefiting from 16.5% patent share growth but facing flat deal activity. Laggards include agtech (-3.4%), gaming (-2.1%), and healthtech (-1.9%). The report emphasizes that relative performance metrics—unaffected by broad ecosystem factors like interest rates—offer the most reliable forward-looking signals. Investors are advised to prioritize verticals with strong exit probabilities, rising valuations, and innovation signals, using the data to inform balanced early-stage allocations. In a market still navigating recovery and technological disruption, PitchBook’s dual-lens approach aims to equip limited partners and venture firms with objective benchmarks to identify resilient opportunities. ([crowdfundinsider.com](https://www.crowdfundinsider.com/2026/02/264114-emerging-opportunities-in-venture-capital-ecosystem-analyzed-in-new-report/?utm_source=openai))
- https://pitchbook.com/media/press-releases/pitchbook-releases-2026-outlook-reports-showcasing-key-trends-shaping-global-private-markets – PitchBook has released its 2026 Outlook report series, offering a data-driven view of the investment trends expected to shape private markets in the year ahead. The seven reports reflect the collective expertise of PitchBook’s global research team and span venture capital, private equity, AI, emerging technology verticals, and established industries. After several years of constrained liquidity and uneven deal activity, investors are entering 2026 with a blend of realism and optimism. Private equity markets are moving toward a more measured phase of momentum as fundraising pressures ease, while venture capital is benefiting from stabilizing market conditions, lower interest rates, and a wave of AI-driven innovation. AI continues to redefine the venture landscape in particular, capturing 65% of total VC deal value in 2025—a dominance that shows no signs of slowing in 2026. ([pitchbook.com](https://pitchbook.com/media/press-releases/pitchbook-releases-2026-outlook-reports-showcasing-key-trends-shaping-global-private-markets?utm_source=openai))
- https://pitchbook.com/media/press-releases/venture-capital-exits-increased-for-female-founded-companies-in-2024-new-pitchbook-report-shows – PitchBook’s annual US and European All In reports on female founders in the venture capital (VC) ecosystem examine how female founders and investors are performing within the broader VC industry. The reports take a closer look at investments across stages and geographical regions, exit activity, industry trends, unicorn companies, and more. In the US, female founders outpaced funding from the prior year by 27%, securing over $38 billion in deal value in 2024. In Europe, for the fourth year in a row, female founders collectively raised €10 billion across nearly 2,000 VC transactions. The reports also include spotlights on all-female founding teams, female angel investors and GPs, and breaks down funding activity within specific industries, US regions, and European countries. ([pitchbook.com](https://pitchbook.com/media/press-releases/venture-capital-exits-increased-for-female-founded-companies-in-2024-new-pitchbook-report-shows?utm_source=openai))
- https://pitchbook.com/media/press-releases/new-venture-investor-survey-shows-ai-dominance-continues – PitchBook and Web Summit partnered on an 8th survey, revealing that 62.2% of investors believe artificial intelligence and machine learning (AI/ML) have the most disruption potential of emerging technologies, an increase from 29% 12 months prior. Additionally, 30% of investors regularly use AI to assess investment opportunities. The survey also found that 63.1% of investors say they would not invest if there would be a negative environmental impact. However, only 43.2% said they have increased the representation of women within their firm and portfolio companies, while the number of women in senior management positions has decreased from 75% to 66.7% over the last year. Just 28.9% of investors say geopolitical events would affect their investment strategies, a significant decrease from last year’s 79%. ([pitchbook.com](https://pitchbook.com/media/press-releases/new-venture-investor-survey-shows-ai-dominance-continues?utm_source=openai))
- https://www.axios.com/pro/all-deals/2025/07/03/emerging-vc-managers-capital – Emerging venture capital (VC) managers are facing challenges in raising capital in 2025. As of July 1, U.S. VCs with less than $250 million assets under management (AUM) have raised just $1.41 billion across 27 funds, according to PitchBook. At their peak in 2021, VCs with less than $250 million AUM raised $23.1 billion in the U.S. across 506 funds. In 2024, total capital raised fell 74% to $6 billion across 138 funds. In 2024, 30 firms raised 75% of all capital raised by VC funds in the U.S., and nine took in $35 billion—half the total raised. During the same period, emerging firms outside of the top 30 closed on 14% of all U.S. VC commitments. Fundraising remains constrained by historically low distribution rates and limited limited partner (LP) liquidity. With traditional VC fund investors stepping back, fundraising cycles are stretching longer, hurting smaller and midsized funds. Cherryrock Capital, which launched in 2023, closed a $172 million Fund I—the largest first-time fund of 2025 so far. The secondary market is expanding as low liquidity continues to pressure LPs. VC secondary dry powder has more than doubled since 2022, according to PitchBook. ([axios.com](https://www.axios.com/pro/all-deals/2025/07/03/emerging-vc-managers-capital?utm_source=openai))
Noah Fact Check Pro
The draft above was created using the information available at the time the story first
emerged. We’ve since applied our fact-checking process to the final narrative, based on the criteria listed
below. The results are intended to help you assess the credibility of the piece and highlight any areas that may
warrant further investigation.
Freshness check
Score:
8
Notes:
The article was published on February 26, 2026, and references a report dated December 31, 2025. The Crowdfund Insider article is the earliest known publication of this content. The report’s findings are recent, and the article provides a timely analysis. No evidence of recycled news or discrepancies in figures, dates, or quotes was found.
Quotes check
Score:
7
Notes:
The article includes direct quotes from the PitchBook report. While the quotes are consistent with the report’s content, they cannot be independently verified through external sources. The absence of online matches for these quotes raises concerns about their authenticity.
Source reliability
Score:
6
Notes:
The article originates from Crowdfund Insider, a niche publication focusing on crowdfunding and fintech. While it provides a detailed analysis, the source’s limited reach and potential biases may affect the reliability of the information. The article appears to be summarising content from PitchBook’s report, which is behind a paywall, raising concerns about the independence of the reporting.
Plausibility check
Score:
7
Notes:
The claims made in the article align with known industry trends, such as the dominance of AI in venture capital. However, the lack of supporting details from other reputable outlets and the inability to independently verify the quotes reduce the overall plausibility. The article’s tone and language are consistent with typical corporate reporting, but the absence of specific factual anchors raises questions about its authenticity.
Overall assessment
Verdict (FAIL, OPEN, PASS): FAIL
Confidence (LOW, MEDIUM, HIGH): MEDIUM
Summary:
The article presents information from PitchBook’s report, which is behind a paywall, and includes direct quotes that cannot be independently verified. The reliance on a paywalled source and the summarisation of its content raise significant concerns about the independence and reliability of the information presented. The inability to independently verify the quotes further diminishes the article’s credibility.