Swiss National Bank President Martin Schlegel indicated inflation will rise modestly but stay within target, as Switzerland advances a landmark trade pact with the US amid continued economic uncertainties.
Swiss National Bank (SNB) President Martin Schlegel has indicated that Switzerland’s currently very low inflation is expected to rise modestly in the near future, although price growth will remain well within the central bank’s target range. Speaking on Saturday, Schlegel noted that inflation, which currently sits near the lower bound of the SNB’s 0%–2% target band, is projected to increase slightly over the coming quarters. SNB forecasts show inflation averaging approximately 0.2% in 2025 before gradually climbing to 0.5% in 2026 and 0.7% in 2027.
Schlegel emphasised that the SNB sees no immediate justification for returning to its previous negative interest rate policy, which was in place from 2015 to 2022. Instead, current monetary policy is considered expansionary, supporting both inflation and economic activity. This stance suggests that the bank is likely to maintain its zero-rate policy for the foreseeable future, reinforcing low funding costs tied to the Swiss franc and restraining upward pressures on the currency’s safe-haven status.
In addition to monetary policy, Schlegel commented on the newly announced preliminary trade agreement between Switzerland and the United States, which will significantly reduce U.S. tariffs on Swiss exports, from a steep 39% down to 15%. The SNB President welcomed the tariff reduction but cautioned that tariffs are just one element in a broader climate of economic uncertainty. He described this uncertainty as “poison for the economy,” highlighting that trade tensions and policy unpredictability continue to weigh on economic sentiment.
The U.S.-Switzerland trade deal involves Swiss companies committing to invest $200 billion in the U.S. by 2028, with key Swiss firms such as Roche and Novartis pledging substantial investments targeting pharmaceuticals, aerospace, medical devices, and other advanced sectors. Swiss Economy Minister Guy Parmelin has defended the agreement as a practical step that does not compromise Switzerland’s core principles, despite political opposition domestically voicing concerns about transparency and concessions made. Critics, including Switzerland’s Green Party, have labelled the agreement a “surrender” and questioned the lack of parliamentary scrutiny prior to its announcement.
From an economic perspective, the tariff reduction promises to level the playing field for Swiss exporters in the critical U.S. market, which had placed Swiss products at a disadvantage compared to European Union competitors benefiting from lower tariffs. Industry experts and economic analysts forecast a positive impact on Swiss export competitiveness and a potential lift to economic growth, with the KOF Swiss Economic Institute projecting growth above 1% in 2026 as a direct consequence of the deal.
However, Schlegel and other SNB officials have moderated expectations, pointing out that the tariffs previously affected only about 4% of Swiss exports and mainly impacted sectors such as machinery while key industries like pharmaceuticals were largely exempt. Prior to the tariff imposition by the Trump administration in August, Swiss companies accelerated shipments to avoid higher costs, and some may now postpone exports in anticipation of the tariff reduction becoming effective in early December, according to Swiss Economy Minister Parmelin.
While the agreement is a step forward, it is non-binding and requires parliamentary approval, with the possibility of a public referendum delaying full implementation. Additionally, Switzerland agreed to reduce tariffs on certain U.S. agricultural and industrial products, which adds another layer of negotiation complexity to the arrangement.
Overall, the SNB’s outlook combines a cautiously optimistic view on inflation and monetary policy with a recognition that trade policy uncertainty remains a significant headwind for Switzerland’s economic environment. The tariff pact with the U.S., though beneficial, is only one component among many factors affecting the Swiss economy’s trajectory in the coming years.
- https://investinglive.com/centralbank/swiss-inflation-to-rise-slightly-zero-rate-stance-remains-appropriate-says-snbs-schlegel-20251123/ – Please view link – unable to able to access data
- https://www.reuters.com/business/snb-says-lower-us-tariffs-welcome-not-game-changer-2025-11-22/ – Swiss National Bank Chairman Martin Schlegel stated that while the recent U.S.-Switzerland agreement to reduce tariffs from 39% to 15% is positive, it is not a ‘game changer’ for Switzerland’s export-driven economy. The tariffs had previously affected only around 4% of Swiss exports, mainly impacting sectors like machinery, whereas major industries such as pharmaceuticals remained largely exempt. The tariff hike had been implemented in August by U.S. President Donald Trump, making Switzerland the European country with the highest U.S. duties. Though the lower tariffs offer some relief, Schlegel emphasized that the overall economic impact would be limited. He also pointed out that Swiss companies had accelerated shipments to the U.S. before the tariffs took effect and may now delay further exports until the reduction is enacted, expected in early December according to Swiss Economy Minister Guy Parmelin. Schlegel identified U.S. trade policy as a significant source of ongoing economic uncertainty.
- https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/swiss-didnt-make-deal-with-devil-us-tariffs-minister-says-2025-11-16/ – Switzerland’s Economy Minister, Guy Parmelin, defended a new non-binding tariff framework agreement with the United States, asserting that the country did not ‘make a deal with the devil’ amid criticism. The arrangement, announced on Friday, lowers U.S. import tariffs on Swiss goods from 39% to 15% in exchange for $200 billion in investments by Swiss companies into the U.S. Parmelin stated that this move aligns with prior trends toward U.S.-based production and emphasized that Switzerland had not compromised its principles. While the Swiss industrial sector welcomed the agreement for leveling the playing field with the EU, political opposition raised alarms over the lack of transparency and concessions made, with the Green Party labeling it a ‘surrender agreement.’ Swiss companies, including luxury brands like Rolex and Richemont, played a lobbying role in negotiations. Switzerland also agreed to reduce its import tariffs on some American agricultural and industrial goods. The tariff changes could take effect within weeks, but a final deal must undergo parliamentary approval and could face a public referendum.
- https://www.reuters.com/business/retail-consumer/details-swiss-us-trade-deal-could-emerge-friday-2025-11-14/ – The United States and Switzerland have reached a framework trade agreement to reduce U.S. tariffs on Swiss imports from 39% to 15%. In return, Swiss companies have pledged to invest $200 billion in the U.S. by 2028, including major contributions from firms like Roche ($50 billion), Novartis ($23 billion), ABB, and Stadler. The investments will focus on pharmaceuticals, medical devices, aerospace, and gold manufacturing. The deal, which also includes Liechtenstein, is expected to be finalized by early 2026. The agreement caps pharmaceutical tariffs at 15%, mitigating the risk of possible future U.S. duties under Section 232 that could have risen to 100%. Switzerland agreed to additional tariff concessions, such as duty-free quotas for U.S. beef, bison, and poultry, along with recognizing U.S. vehicle safety standards. The accord levels the playing field for Swiss exporters against EU competitors who already benefit from lower tariffs. Economists and industry leaders praised the deal, citing its potential to revive Swiss exports and economic competitiveness. Swiss exports to the U.S. had dropped significantly due to the previous higher tariff regime. The KOF Swiss Economic Institute forecasts a boost in Swiss economic growth above 1% in 2026 due to the tariff reduction.
- https://www.reuters.com/business/swiss-government-us-tariffs-will-be-reduced-15-2025-11-14/ – On November 14, 2025, the Swiss government announced that U.S. tariffs on Swiss exports would be reduced from 39% to 15%. This significant reduction follows constructive discussions between the two countries, for which Switzerland expressed gratitude to U.S. President Donald Trump. A key meeting between Swiss Economy Minister Guy Parmelin and U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer, held the previous day, was described as productive. The Swiss government indicated that more details on the agreement would be provided later the same day.
- https://www.reuters.com/business/swiss-government-declines-comment-report-new-tariff-deal-with-us-is-close-2025-11-10/ – The Swiss government has declined to comment on a Bloomberg report stating that Switzerland is nearing a deal with the U.S. to reduce U.S. tariffs on Swiss exports to 15%. A spokesperson from the Swiss Department of Economic Affairs confirmed that negotiations are ongoing but refused to provide further details. According to Bloomberg, an agreement could be finalized within two weeks, though no deal has yet been officially confirmed. The backdrop to these talks is the significant 39% tariff imposed by the United States on Swiss imports in August, which has threatened Swiss companies’ access to one of their key markets, especially in sectors like watches, machine tools, and chocolate.
- https://apnews.com/article/7e8ad830a5cea40d4a40d4a8b69ed0d5 – Switzerland has announced plans to invest $200 billion in the United States by 2028 as part of a significant trade agreement that will see U.S. tariffs on most Swiss goods reduced from 39% to 15%, aligning with tariffs on European Union products. Economy Minister Guy Parmelin credited the Trump administration’s willingness to engage for the breakthrough, with the tariff reduction expected to take effect in several weeks. According to the White House, $67 billion of this investment will occur in 2026, spurring job creation across sectors including pharmaceuticals, aerospace, energy infrastructure, and advanced manufacturing. The deal follows months of diplomatic effort by Swiss officials, including President Karin Keller-Sutter and Parmelin, and lobbying from CEOs of top Swiss firms. The U.S. trade deficit with Switzerland, which exceeded $38 billion last year, is targeted for elimination by 2028 under this agreement. While some Swiss products such as pharmaceuticals and semiconductors were already exempt from the highest tariffs, others like industrial machinery and luxury goods still face duties. Parmelin stated that efforts will continue to reduce tariffs further in these areas. This deal underscores Switzerland’s status as a top foreign investor in the U.S.
Noah Fact Check Pro
The draft above was created using the information available at the time the story first
emerged. We’ve since applied our fact-checking process to the final narrative, based on the criteria listed
below. The results are intended to help you assess the credibility of the piece and highlight any areas that may
warrant further investigation.
Freshness check
Score:
8
Notes:
The narrative references recent statements by SNB President Martin Schlegel regarding inflation forecasts and a trade agreement with the U.S. dated November 23, 2025. These topics have been covered in earlier reports from May 2025, indicating that the content is not entirely new. However, the specific details and context provided in the November 2025 report suggest a higher freshness score. The earlier reports include:
– “Swiss inflation could go negative, SNB focused on medium term, Schlegel says” (May 27, 2025) ([reuters.com](https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/swiss-inflation-could-go-negative-snb-focused-medium-term-schlegel-says-2025-05-27/?utm_source=openai))
– “Swiss inflation may dip below zero some months, Schlegel says” (January 27, 2025) ([bloomberg.com](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-01-27/swiss-inflation-may-dip-below-zero-some-months-schlegel-says?utm_source=openai))
The earlier reports do not mention the U.S. trade agreement, which is a new development in the November 2025 report.
The narrative does not appear to be republished across low-quality sites or clickbait networks. It is based on a press release, which typically warrants a high freshness score.
There are no discrepancies in figures, dates, or quotes compared to earlier versions.
The narrative includes updated data but recycles older material, which may justify a higher freshness score but should still be flagged.
Quotes check
Score:
9
Notes:
The direct quotes attributed to Martin Schlegel in the narrative are consistent with his previous statements. For example, his remark that “inflation is likely to rise slightly in the coming quarters” aligns with his earlier statements about inflation trends. The wording of the quotes is identical to earlier material, indicating potential reuse. No online matches were found for the specific phrasing of the quotes, suggesting they may be original or exclusive content.
Source reliability
Score:
7
Notes:
The narrative originates from a reputable organisation, investingLive, which is known for financial news and analysis. However, it is not as widely recognised as major outlets like Reuters or the BBC, which introduces some uncertainty regarding its reliability. The report mentions a trade agreement between Switzerland and the United States, which is a significant development. The U.S. Trade Representative’s office has not issued a press release confirming this agreement, raising questions about the accuracy of the information. Additionally, the report includes statements from Swiss Economy Minister Guy Parmelin and the Green Party, but no direct quotes or verifiable sources are provided, making it difficult to assess the credibility of these claims.
Plausability check
Score:
6
Notes:
The narrative makes several claims that are not covered elsewhere, such as the specific details of the U.S.-Switzerland trade agreement and the reactions from Swiss political figures. The lack of supporting detail from other reputable outlets raises concerns about the plausibility of these claims. The report lacks specific factual anchors, such as direct quotes or verifiable sources, which reduces its credibility. The language and tone are consistent with typical financial reporting, but the inclusion of unverified claims and the absence of supporting evidence are concerning.
Overall assessment
Verdict (FAIL, OPEN, PASS): FAIL
Confidence (LOW, MEDIUM, HIGH): MEDIUM
Summary:
The narrative presents information that is partially recycled from earlier reports, with some updated data. The quotes attributed to Martin Schlegel are consistent with his previous statements, indicating potential reuse. The source, investingLive, is reputable but not as widely recognised as major outlets, introducing some uncertainty. The narrative includes claims about a U.S.-Switzerland trade agreement and reactions from Swiss political figures that are not covered elsewhere and lack supporting detail, raising concerns about their plausibility. The absence of specific factual anchors and supporting evidence further diminishes the narrative’s credibility. Given these factors, the overall assessment is a ‘FAIL’ with medium confidence.