Recent downgrades of the US, China, and France have reignited debates about the consistency and credibility of leading credit rating agencies, amid broad concerns over fiscal health and market confidence in 2024.
The debate over sovereign ratings has returned to the centre of global finance, as the United States, China and France have all faced downgrades in recent years while Italy, Spain and Portugal have seen improvements to their credit profiles. That pattern has revived long-running criticism that the world’s biggest rating agencies do not always judge large economies by the same yardstick.
In 2024, Moody’s cut the United States from Aaa to Aa1, citing widening fiscal deficits. Fitch lowered China from A+ to A on slower growth, while both S&P and Fitch downgraded France, pointing to policy uncertainty and rigid public finances. By contrast, Italy was upgraded on stronger tax revenue and better co-ordination between ministries, while Spain and Portugal benefited from healthier labour markets and tourism-led growth, according to reports from Seoul Daily.
The contrast matters because the “Big Three” agencies, S&P, Moody’s and Fitch, have been under suspicion ever since the global financial crisis, when critics accused them of being too generous to risky financial products before turning sharply more severe on eurozone borrowers. The controversy prompted calls in Europe for an independent ratings body and led both the US and European authorities to tighten oversight in an effort to improve transparency and competition, according to the Council on Foreign Relations.
For Italy in particular, the history is sensitive. European institutions spent years warning about Rome’s debt load, even as larger economies with their own fiscal strains often received a gentler reading. That disparity has long fuelled claims that reserve-currency status, geopolitical influence and market depth can soften the language used by ratings firms when assessing countries such as the US.
Yet the fiscal arithmetic has become harder to ignore. IMF forecasts cited by the Irish Times suggest that US government debt is on track to overtake Italy’s and Greece’s this century, with gross debt projected to reach 143.4% of GDP by 2030, above Italy’s 137% and Greece’s 130.2%. Separately, an IMF warning reported by the Chosun Ilbo said American debt could surpass those European levels within five years, underscoring growing concern over interest costs and the durability of US public finances.
That makes the latest wave of rating changes more than a symbolic exercise. For investors, sovereign ratings feed directly into borrowing costs, bond yields and currency expectations. When agencies appear inconsistent, markets can become less confident in the signals they provide, forcing investors to rely more heavily on underlying fiscal data than on the ratings themselves.
The broader lesson is that debt problems are no longer confined to the usual suspects. The United States, France, China and Italy are all being judged against a harsher fiscal backdrop, and the old assumption that the biggest economies can always borrow cheaply is coming under pressure. If deficits keep rising and growth disappoints, the ratings agencies may find that their credibility is once again on trial.
- https://meyka.com/blog/us-debt-crisis-april-19-global-rating-agencies-face-scrutiny-1904-2/ – Please view link – unable to able to access data
- https://en.sedaily.com/finance/2026/02/24/us-china-france-downgraded-in-2024-italy-spain-portugal – In 2024, the United States, China, and France experienced downgrades in their sovereign credit ratings, while Italy, Spain, and Portugal received upgrades. Moody’s downgraded the US from Aaa to Aa1, citing widening fiscal deficits. Fitch downgraded China from A+ to A, attributing it to slowing growth. France faced downgrades from both S&P and Fitch due to policy uncertainty and rigid fiscal structures. Conversely, Italy’s upgrade was attributed to increased tax revenue and enhanced inter-ministerial cooperation, while Spain and Portugal’s upgrades were linked to improved labor supply and strong tourism performance, respectively.
- https://www.cfr.org/backgrounders/credit-rating-controversy – The ‘Big Three’ global credit rating agencies—Standard & Poor’s (S&P), Moody’s, and Fitch Ratings—have faced intense scrutiny following the global financial crisis. Accusations include contributing to the crisis by offering overly favorable evaluations of insolvent financial institutions and approving risky mortgage-related securities. In Europe, these agencies downgraded the creditworthiness of major eurozone economies, such as France and Austria, leading to calls for the creation of an independent European ratings agency. Both the US and Europe have taken steps to regulate these agencies to ensure more transparency and competitiveness.
- https://biz.chosun.com/en/en-international/2025/10/28/QCYZUW72SNH3FIYIK6VFOT6OB4/?outputType=amp – The International Monetary Fund (IMF) warned that the US national debt could surpass levels of Italy and Greece within five years. This warning coincided with a US federal government shutdown due to a budget impasse. The shutdown led to the suspension of programs like the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP), affecting 42 million low-income individuals. The IMF’s warning highlights concerns over rising interest costs and fiscal sustainability in the US.
- https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-05-26/china-s-top-rating-firm-downgrades-us-in-echo-of-global-rivalry – China’s top rating firm, China Chengxin International Credit Rating Co., downgraded the US credit rating by one notch to AA+ from AAA, placing it on review for a further downgrade. This move occurred amid a debt-ceiling crisis in the US, where the White House and the GOP were seen making progress but still lacked a debt deal. The downgrade reflects the growing concerns over the US’s fiscal situation and its implications for global markets.
- https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/2025/10/27/us-government-debt-burden-on-track-to-overtake-italys-imf-figures-show/ – According to IMF forecasts, the US government’s debt burden is on track to exceed levels in both Italy and Greece for the first time this century. The IMF projects that by 2030, the US general government gross debt will rise to 143.4% of GDP, surpassing Italy’s 137% and Greece’s 130.2%. This trend underscores concerns about the sustainability of US public finances and the potential economic implications.
- https://siai.org/review/2025/12/202512285180 – The article discusses the fiscal challenges faced by Italy, France, and the United States. Italy’s upgrade occurred amid tumultuous domestic politics and mixed economic growth data, yet investors lowered risk assessments. In contrast, the US, with economic growth and a dominant currency, masks fiscal problems until rising interest rates begin to affect budgets. The article emphasizes the need for a reliable multi-year plan and building reserves in good years to protect key priorities during financial downturns.
Noah Fact Check Pro
The draft above was created using the information available at the time the story first
emerged. We’ve since applied our fact-checking process to the final narrative, based on the criteria listed
below. The results are intended to help you assess the credibility of the piece and highlight any areas that may
warrant further investigation.
Freshness check
Score:
4
Notes:
⚠️ The article references events from 2024, with the latest being a Moody’s downgrade of the US credit rating in May 2025. ([chase.com](https://www.chase.com/personal/investments/learning-and-insights/article/moodys-downgrades-us-government-debt?utm_source=openai)) The article was published on April 19, 2026, making the content over a year old. Additionally, the article cites reports from the Seoul Economic Daily, which may not be widely accessible or independently verifiable. The reliance on a single source for multiple claims raises concerns about the freshness and originality of the content.
Quotes check
Score:
3
Notes:
⚠️ The article includes direct quotes attributed to the Seoul Economic Daily and other sources. However, these quotes cannot be independently verified through available online sources. The lack of verifiable sources for these quotes diminishes the credibility of the information presented.
Source reliability
Score:
4
Notes:
⚠️ The primary source, the Seoul Economic Daily, is a niche publication with limited international reach. The article also references reports from the Irish Times and the Chosun Ilbo, which may not be easily accessible or independently verifiable. The reliance on these sources raises concerns about the reliability and independence of the information presented.
Plausibility check
Score:
5
Notes:
⚠️ The article discusses the downgrades of the US, China, and France, and upgrades of Italy, Spain, and Portugal by major rating agencies. While these events are plausible and align with known fiscal challenges in these countries, the specific details and attributions to the Seoul Economic Daily cannot be independently verified. The lack of supporting evidence from other reputable sources raises questions about the accuracy of the claims.
Overall assessment
Verdict (FAIL, OPEN, PASS): FAIL
Confidence (LOW, MEDIUM, HIGH): MEDIUM
Summary:
The article presents information on sovereign credit rating changes for several countries, citing reports from the Seoul Economic Daily and other sources. However, the content is over a year old, with the latest event being a Moody’s downgrade of the US credit rating in May 2025. The reliance on a single, niche source for multiple claims, combined with the inability to independently verify key quotes and details, raises significant concerns about the freshness, originality, and reliability of the information. Given these issues, the article does not meet the necessary standards for publication.