Deglobalisation accelerates reshaping of infrastructure investment landscape with a focus on resilience and self-sufficiency

Deglobalisation is fundamentally reshaping the infrastructure investment landscape, compelling a shift from cost-efficiency towards resilience, security, and national self-sufficiency. This broad trend, spurred by geopolitical tensions, supply chain vulnerabilities, and policy shifts, has profound implications for how infrastructure projects are planned, financed, and executed worldwide.

The growing emphasis on resilience and nearshoring reflects a global policy move away from reliance on distant, efficient yet fragile supply chains, towards securing more reliable and controllable infrastructure assets. Daniel Han, head of Korea at Prostar Capital, highlights that in the Asia-Pacific region this transition manifests as policy-led investments in energy grids, firm power supplies, and digital infrastructure. At the same time, Roxana Tataru of Allianz Global Investors notes governments are increasingly co-investing in critical infrastructure to attract private capital while bolstering national security. This trend is visible across regions, as countries globally recalibrate strategic priorities to address geopolitical instability.

While the pivot towards friendshoring and nearshoring enhances supply chain security, it inevitably increases costs and operational complexity. Roby Camagong from Equis Australia underscores rising supplier tariffs and the challenge of sourcing from multiple suppliers to maintain diversification, which limits traditional discounts and complicates supply stability. In Europe, Tataru observes, these frictions raise costs significantly for greenfield projects, necessitating more stringent stress testing of infrastructure investments for cost and supply risk resilience.

This structural evolution is far-reaching and likely long-term. Han asserts security and policy considerations will sustain new procurement and siting norms regardless of trade volume fluctuations. Max Engardt from Nordic investor Infranode views this shift less pessimistically, seeing an opportunity to deepen local partnerships, even as the transition unfolds over decades. Camagong points out that regions closer to China may benefit from lower logistics costs despite geopolitical tensions, suggesting nuanced regional dynamics within the deglobalisation paradigm.

Critically, deglobalisation also translates into increased capital requirements for infrastructure as redundancy, localisation, and resilience demand duplicated facilities and expanded capacity. Engardt warns of a widening funding gap as countries prioritise domestic self-sufficiency, while Han highlights the growing strategic role of private capital in funding and risk-sharing, especially amid constrained public budgets.

Investment opportunities are expected to concentrate notably in energy and digital infrastructure, sectors seen as vital to national security and future economic stability. Transmission, storage, LNG, hydrogen midstream, ports, and logistics infrastructure will also see heightened focus, although ports may face economic pressures from reduced global trade volumes. Tataru points out that digital infrastructure and energy assets are now core services rather than optional expenditures, driven by rising demands for AI, processing power, and secure energy supply.

These trends resonate with broader policy initiatives worldwide. For example, JPMorgan Chase recently announced a $1.5 trillion investment plan over ten years targeting strategic US industries including energy independence and frontier technologies, supporting national security agendas. Similarly, the US CHIPS and Science Act and the European Union’s Critical Raw Materials Act aim to bolster domestic production and diversify supply chains for semiconductors and rare earth elements, key components for green technologies. These legislative measures exemplify how geopolitical conflicts and export controls are accelerating moves toward greater self-sufficiency and supply chain realignment.

Globally, companies are adapting by recalibrating supply chains from ‘just-in-time’ to ‘just-in-case’ models, embracing friendshoring with ‘China+1’ diversification strategies to balance resilience with efficiency. The European Union’s Green Industrial Plan, promoting local sourcing in strategic sectors such as renewables and pharmaceuticals, further illustrates this multifaceted response.

However, while deglobalisation presents investment challenges through cost increases and operational complexity, it equally generates new infrastructure debt and equity opportunities, according to IFM Investors. Their Infrastructure Horizons 2025 report identifies geopolitical tensions, economic nationalism, and supply chain vulnerabilities as catalysts for reshaping global trade patterns and infrastructure funding flows.

Nevertheless, there are cautions. The wider impact of deglobalisation includes slower economic growth and potential setbacks in innovation and global technological diffusion, as highlighted in broader economic analyses. These risks suggest that while localisation strengthens resilience, maintaining some degree of global economic integration remains crucial.

In essence, infrastructure investors face a transformed a landscape defined by heightened geopolitical risks and strategic imperatives. The resilience-driven repricing of risk, rising costs, and shifting supply chain geographies underscore that the era of globalisation’s unchallenged efficiency is giving way to a more complex and cautious investment environment. Those who anticipate these shifts and adapt swiftly stand to lead the next cycle of infrastructure investment, balancing risks while capitalising on the opportunities emerging from this profound global transition.