Goldman Sachs reveals a sharp recovery in investor sentiment following the Middle East ceasefire, driven by US equities and systematic strategies. However, the rally remains selective and cautious, highlighting a fragile risk-on environment.
Goldman Sachs says risk appetite has snapped back from the brief shock of the ceasefire in the Middle East, but the recovery is proving selective rather than broad-based.
In its latest sentiment and positioning update, the bank said its indicators have rebounded sharply, with its sentiment gauge back to the 58th percentile and its risk appetite measure returning to pre-war levels. That improvement has been most visible in derivatives and flow data, where call demand has risen, volatility has fallen and investors have moved away from pricing extreme downside scenarios.
The shift has been clearest in US equities. Goldman said American indices have led the rebound, with call skew rising after the ceasefire and S&P 500 put-call ratios falling to unusually low levels as retail buying broadened across the market. The move has also been supported by systematic strategies, including CTA and risk-parity flows, as well as renewed buying from US asset managers and hedge funds.
The US has also remained the main recipient of new equity risk. Goldman said both foreign and domestic investors have been adding to US stocks since the first quarter, while demand for local markets outside America has cooled in many regions. Of roughly $100bn in US domestic equity inflows year to date, about half arrived in the past four weeks, highlighting how concentrated the latest wave of re-risking has been.
Even so, the recovery is not uniform. Investors have been more hesitant in cyclicals and leveraged funds, suggesting the rebound is being driven by targeted equity exposure and upside optionality rather than by a full macro turn. Outside equities, the tone is steadier but less forceful: government bonds and investment-grade credit attracted money earlier in the year, while high-yield credit has recently seen renewed outflows.
That fits with broader options-market signals. Commentary from market researchers has pointed to volatility skew still favouring downside protection in some parts of the market, even as equities rally. Put-call ratios, meanwhile, remain a closely watched guide to sentiment: low readings are often read as complacency or bullishness, while higher ratios suggest hedging demand or caution. Some options data trackers show sentiment has improved, but not necessarily to the point where investors look fully committed to risk.
Goldman also noted that safe-haven demand has eased in foreign exchange and commodities. Dollar strength implied by risk reversals has faded somewhat, while demand for gold protection has softened and yen positioning has fallen. Commodity exposure has gone the other way, with asset managers’ positioning in BCOM futures reaching a record high, reflecting renewed inflation hedging as well as the energy shock.
The overall message from Goldman is that markets have moved back into risk-on mode, but the setup is less clean than it was before the recent turbulence. Positioning has rebuilt quickly, volatility has compressed and retail and systematic flows have helped drive the rebound. Yet with sentiment no longer washed out, and with parts of the market still behaving cautiously, the recovery now looks more vulnerable to disappointment.
- https://www.tickmill.com/blog/institutional-insights-goldman-sachs-positioning-sentiment-update – Please view link – unable to able to access data
- https://www.wisdomai.com/insights/Bloomberg%20Surveillance/volatility-skew-market-defensiveness-earnings-rotation-options-hedging-db698588 – This article discusses how options pricing indicates a defensive market stance, with investors paying more for downside protection than for speculation. It highlights that the volatility skew, which measures the cost difference between put and call options, currently favours protection, suggesting cautious positioning ahead of earnings and into 2026. The piece advises using skew as a positioning check, managing size, preferring liquid hedges, and gradually tilting into sectors regaining leadership.
- https://nexusfi.com/a/data/sentiment-data-futures-trading – This resource explains the significance of put/call ratios in futures trading, focusing on how they reflect market sentiment and positioning. It distinguishes between equity and index put/call ratios, noting that the index ratio is more influenced by institutional hedging activity. The article also discusses the mechanics of these ratios, interpreting high ratios as indicating bearish positioning or hedging demand, and low ratios as suggesting bullish positioning or complacency.
- https://fintel.io/sopt/us/spy – This page provides detailed options data for the State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY), including the open interest put/call ratio, which stands at 1.80. A ratio above 1 indicates a bearish sentiment, while a ratio below 1 suggests a bullish sentiment. The page also offers insights into options sentiment, unusual options activity, and other relevant metrics, aiding investors in understanding market positioning and potential future movements.
- https://www.schaeffersresearch.com/content/options/2026/02/04/options-traders-are-getting-more-bearish-on-s-p-500-stocks – This article reports on a recent increase in bearish sentiment among options traders regarding S&P 500 stocks. It notes that, over the past ten days, the number of S&P 500 Index (SPX) stocks with a 10-day, buy-to-open put/call ratio over 1.00 has risen to 25.4%, the highest since May 20, 2025. This suggests a growing bearish outlook among options traders, potentially indicating a shift in market sentiment.
- https://www.chartguys.com/articles/put-call-ratio – This article provides an in-depth explanation of the put-call ratio, a key sentiment indicator in options trading. It outlines different types of put-call ratios, including equity, index, and total ratios, and discusses what each measures. The piece also guides readers on selecting the appropriate ratio based on their analytical needs, highlighting how these ratios can reflect market sentiment and potential future price movements.
- https://www.barchart.com/stocks/quotes/%24SPX/put-call-ratios – This page offers comprehensive options statistics for the S&P 500 Index (SPX), including implied volatility, historical volatility, and put/call ratios. The put/call open interest ratio is a key metric, with a higher ratio potentially indicating an oversold market and a lower ratio suggesting an overbought market. The page provides real-time data and historical trends, assisting investors in assessing market sentiment and making informed trading decisions.
Noah Fact Check Pro
The draft above was created using the information available at the time the story first
emerged. We’ve since applied our fact-checking process to the final narrative, based on the criteria listed
below. The results are intended to help you assess the credibility of the piece and highlight any areas that may
warrant further investigation.
Freshness check
Score:
6
Notes:
The article from Tickmill, dated April 29, 2026, references Goldman Sachs’ sentiment and positioning update. A similar report from Goldman Sachs Asset Management, dated April 8, 2026, discusses market themes and positioning. ([am.gs.com](https://am.gs.com/en-fi/advisors/insights/article/market-know-how?utm_source=openai)) The Tickmill article appears to be a derivative of this earlier report, suggesting potential recycling of content. Additionally, the Tickmill article includes a disclaimer stating that it is for informational purposes only and not intended as financial advice, which may indicate a lack of original reporting. The overlap in content and the disclaimer raise concerns about the originality and freshness of the Tickmill article.
Quotes check
Score:
5
Notes:
The Tickmill article includes direct quotes attributed to Goldman Sachs, such as: “Goldman Sachs says risk appetite has snapped back from the brief shock of the ceasefire in the Middle East.” However, these quotes cannot be independently verified through the provided sources. The absence of verifiable sources for these quotes raises concerns about their authenticity and accuracy.
Source reliability
Score:
4
Notes:
The Tickmill article originates from a niche financial news website, which may not have the same editorial standards as major news organisations. The article appears to be summarising or aggregating content from Goldman Sachs’ reports, without providing independent analysis or verification. The lack of original reporting and reliance on summarised content from a niche source diminishes the overall reliability of the article.
Plausibility check
Score:
6
Notes:
The article discusses Goldman Sachs’ assessment of market sentiment following a ceasefire in the Middle East, noting a rebound in risk appetite and selective recovery in equities. Similar themes are reported in other sources, such as a report from Investing.com discussing European markets rallying across sectors due to the US-Iran ceasefire. ([investing.com](https://www.investing.com/news/stock-market-news/european-markets-rally-across-sectors-as-usiran-ceasefire-lifts-sentiment-4602174?utm_source=openai)) However, the Tickmill article’s lack of independent verification and reliance on summarised content raises questions about the accuracy and depth of the analysis.
Overall assessment
Verdict (FAIL, OPEN, PASS): FAIL
Confidence (LOW, MEDIUM, HIGH): MEDIUM
Summary:
The Tickmill article summarises Goldman Sachs’ sentiment and positioning update, but it lacks original reporting and relies heavily on summarised content from other sources, including potentially paywalled content. The absence of independently verifiable quotes and the reliance on a niche source with potentially lower editorial standards further diminish the article’s credibility. Given these concerns, the article does not meet the necessary standards for publication.