Macro hedge funds record their strongest year since 2008 amid soaring volatility

Macro hedge funds have enjoyed one of their strongest years in well over a decade as volatile moves in currencies, commodities and sovereign debt created rich trading opportunities, according to industry sources and recent reports.

The Financial Times reported that an HFR index tracking macro managers was up about 16 per cent at the end of November, putting the sector on course for its most profitable year in data stretching back to 2008. The FT said funds including Andrew Law’s Caxton, Chris Rokos’s RCM and Greg Coffey’s Kirkoswald Capital delivered double‑digit gains for investors, with Caxton’s Global up about 14 per cent to December 5 and Caxton Macro up about 18 per cent, Rokos up about 17.5 per cent to end‑November and Kirkoswald’s flagship up about 21 per cent by mid‑December, according to people familiar with the figures. Brevan Howard’s returns were more mixed, the FT reported, with its Master Fund up 0.4 per cent and its Alpha Strategies multi‑manager product up 7.2 per cent as of end‑November. Brevan Howard, Rokos, Caxton and Kirkoswald declined to comment, the article added.

Managers and investors cited the same market drivers. “There’s plenty to work with, which doesn’t make it easy to get right,” Ken Tropin, founder and chair of macro fund Graham Capital, said, telling the FT that Graham’s discretionary portfolio managers made most of their returns trading the dollar, gold and the US government bond market. Tropin added that portfolio managers relied on so‑called “tactical”, or short‑term, trading strategies this year to move quickly in volatile asset classes. An executive at a large European family office told the FT: “Every underlying asset class like commodities, FX and bonds had great opportunities this past year.”

Independent industry data corroborate the broad picture, though with some variation in vintage comparisons and headline numbers. The 22nd Annual Global Investment Report’s third‑quarter update said macro hedge funds had achieved roughly 15 per cent through Q3 2025 and were positioned for their best year since 2008, with emerging market funds also performing strongly. Citco’s reporting, cited by industry trackers, put global macro returns at about 15.8 per cent through three quarters and recorded a weighted hedge‑fund average gain of about 16.6 per cent to Q3, prompting some commentators to say the industry is on course for its best year since 2020 rather than 2008. An Opalesque roundup likewise noted a 6.5 per cent gain for global macro in the third quarter and said hedge funds attracted more than $40 billion in net inflows that quarter.

Data providers and research firms emphasise different benchmarks and time frames, which explains the slightly divergent assessments of whether 2025 will be the strongest year since 2008, 2009 or 2020. Citco’s figures were also cited by HedgeFundAlpha in earlier industry analysis, which highlighted strong performance in 2024 across several strategies and underscored that global macro has become a standout performer during periods of heightened volatility.

Flows and industry scale underpinned the performance narrative. HedgeCo Insights reported that total hedge fund assets reached about $4.74 trillion by mid‑2025 and that the sector drew record inflows amid market turbulence, with some multi‑strategy and macro managers taking the lion’s share. Industry snapshots show multi‑strategy and equities strategies also contributing to robust aggregate returns, with multistrategy funds posting mid‑teens to high‑teens average gains in 2025 to date.

Market themes that fed macro profits were consistent across accounts: a pronounced sell‑off and subsequent rally in long‑dated government bonds, a sustained rally in gold and other commodities, and a weaker US dollar that encouraged investors into emerging market currencies and bonds. Some managers made money by shorting the dollar and rotating into emerging market assets; others profited from “steepener” trades that bet on widening between short‑ and long‑term borrowing costs before yields retreated. The FT reported that both Graham and Rokos purchased UK government debt when gilts spiked and then rallied.

Despite the broadly positive reporting, returns were uneven across firms and strategies. The FT’s more granular fund‑level numbers show wide dispersion between top performers and those with muted results, and Brevan Howard’s modest Master Fund return serves as a reminder that multi‑approach platforms can deliver divergent outcomes even in a favourable macro environment. Industry reports also note that while headline averages are strong, individual investor experience depends on timing, strategy mix and fee structures.

The surge in volatility that underpinned gains has several potential implications. For investors, industry analysts say it improves the opportunity set for macro managers able to trade across FX, rates and commodities, but it also raises the bar for active risk management as positions can reverse rapidly. For the industry, record inflows and rising assets under management may encourage further capacity build‑outs and product launches, particularly in multi‑strategy and macro offerings that have shown recent success.

Taken together, reporting from the Financial Times, the Global Investment Report, Citco‑linked industry analyses, Opalesque and HedgeCo Insights paints a picture of a hedge fund industry benefiting from renewed market turbulence, with global macro among the primary beneficiaries. Exact rankings and the claim of the “best year since” vary depending on the dataset and cutoff date used, but consensus across sources is that 2025 has been an unusually profitable period for macro investors.