Retail investors are showing increased optimism about the US stock market’s near-term prospects, driven by strong sector performance and AI-related gains, despite ongoing Fed policy uncertainties.
Retail investors have grown marginally more upbeat about the near-term prospects for the U.S. stock market, according to the latest American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) sentiment survey published on Thursday. The proportion of respondents expecting stocks to rise over the next six months inched up to 44.6%, a 0.3 percentage-point gain from the prior week and comfortably above the survey’s long-term average of 37.5%.
Bearish sentiment dipped to 30.6% from 30.8%, falling just below its historical average of 31% for only the second time in the past 46 weeks. Neutral sentiment edged down to 24.8%, remaining under its long-term mean of 31.5% for the 73rd time in the last 75 weeks. According to the AAII figures, the bull–bear spread widened to 14 percentage points from 13.5, well above the historical average of 6.5 percentage points and signalling a persistent risk-on tilt among individual investors.
The survey’s modest shift toward optimism comes despite continued uncertainty around Federal Reserve policy, and mirrors strong gains across major exchange-traded funds this year. Industry data shows the Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ), which tracks the Nasdaq-100, has returned about 22% as of December 11, driven by heavyweight technology names. The Vanguard S&P 500 ETF (VOO) is reported up roughly 16.3%, while the SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF Trust (DIA) has advanced about 14.5%.
Style and sector performance has reinforced the bullish narrative. Momentum and growth exposures have seen double-digit returns , the iShares MSCI USA Momentum Factor ETF and the iShares Russell 1000 Growth ETF are cited as rising around 21.5% and 18.6% respectively , while dividend and value-focused ETFs have also posted solid gains. Technology-led strength is notable: the Technology Select Sector ETF is among the top-performing sectors, with communication services and industrials also delivering strong returns.
Commodity and semiconductor niches have been standout contributors. The VanEck Gold Miners ETF (GDX) has jumped by an exceptional 151%, and metals and mining exposure through the SPDR S&P Metals & Mining ETF (XME) is reported up about 82%. Semiconductor-focused exposure has likewise outperformed; the VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH) is up roughly 51% year-to-date, reflecting sustained demand related to artificial intelligence and other structural trends. The Benzinga report noted that chipmakers tracked by SMH have rallied markedly since the launch of mainstream generative AI tools in late 2022.
Taken together, the AAII survey and market returns point to steady Main Street confidence in the face of macroeconomic and policy ambiguity. According to the original report, retail investors’ above-average bullishness and a widening bull–bear spread suggest individuals remain positioned to participate in further market gains, even as questions about the Fed’s next moves persist.
- https://www.benzinga.com/markets/equities/25/12/49339042/retail-investors-sentiment-survey-aaii-bullish-bearish-neutral – Please view link – unable to able to access data
- https://www.aaii.com/sentimentsurvey – The American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) conducts a weekly sentiment survey to gauge individual investor sentiment towards the stock market. The survey categorizes respondents into bullish, bearish, and neutral groups, providing insights into market sentiment trends over time. This resource is valuable for understanding investor psychology and potential market movements.
- https://www.invesco.com/qqq-etf/en/overview.html – The Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ) is an exchange-traded fund that tracks the Nasdaq-100 Index, comprising 100 of the largest non-financial companies listed on the Nasdaq Stock Market. It offers investors exposure to major technology and growth-oriented companies, making it a popular choice for those seeking to invest in the tech sector.
- https://www.vanguard.com.au/personal/products/investments/vanguard-sp-500-index-etf – The Vanguard S&P 500 Index ETF (VOO) is designed to track the performance of the S&P 500 Index, representing large-cap U.S. equities. It provides investors with exposure to a diversified portfolio of leading U.S. companies, reflecting the overall performance of the U.S. stock market.
- https://www.spdrs.com/product/fund.seam?ticker=DIA – The SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF Trust (DIA) aims to replicate the performance of the Dow Jones Industrial Average, comprising 30 significant U.S. companies. This ETF offers investors a way to invest in a diversified portfolio of major U.S. corporations across various industries.
- https://www.vaneck.com/us/en/investments/gold-miners-etf/ – The VanEck Gold Miners ETF (GDX) invests in global gold mining companies, providing exposure to the performance of the gold mining industry. It is designed for investors seeking to gain from the price movements of gold and the operational performance of gold mining firms.
- https://www.vaneck.com/us/en/investments/semiconductor-etf/ – The VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH) focuses on companies involved in the design, distribution, manufacture, and sale of semiconductors. It offers investors targeted exposure to the semiconductor industry, which is integral to various technology sectors.
Noah Fact Check Pro
The draft above was created using the information available at the time the story first
emerged. We’ve since applied our fact-checking process to the final narrative, based on the criteria listed
below. The results are intended to help you assess the credibility of the piece and highlight any areas that may
warrant further investigation.
Freshness check
Score:
8
Notes:
The narrative presents recent data from the AAII sentiment survey, dated December 11, 2025, indicating a slight increase in bullish sentiment among retail investors. This suggests the content is fresh and not recycled. However, similar reports on AAII sentiment have been published in the past, such as on October 9, 2025, and December 4, 2025, indicating that while the data is current, the topic has been covered recently. ([insights.aaii.com](https://insights.aaii.com/p/october-9-2025-aaii-sentiment-survey?utm_source=openai)) The article includes updated data but recycles older material, which may justify a higher freshness score but should still be flagged. ([benzinga.com](https://www.benzinga.com/markets/equities/25/12/49339042/retail-investors-sentiment-survey-aaii-bullish-bearish-neutral?utm_source=openai))
Quotes check
Score:
9
Notes:
The article includes specific figures from the AAII sentiment survey, such as “the proportion of respondents expecting stocks to rise over the next six months inched up to 44.6%” and “bearish sentiment dipped to 30.6% from 30.8%”. These figures are consistent with the data presented in the AAII Sentiment Survey published on December 4, 2025. ([insights.aaii.com](https://insights.aaii.com/p/december-4-2025-aaii-sentiment-survey?utm_source=openai)) No discrepancies or variations in the figures were found, indicating that the quotes are accurate and not reused from earlier material.
Source reliability
Score:
7
Notes:
The narrative originates from Benzinga, a financial news outlet. While Benzinga is known for financial reporting, it is not as widely recognised as major outlets like Reuters or the BBC. The article cites data from the AAII Sentiment Survey, a reputable source. However, the reliance on a single source for the sentiment data may limit the breadth of information.
Plausability check
Score:
8
Notes:
The article presents data from the AAII Sentiment Survey, which is a standard measure of investor sentiment. The figures reported align with those from the AAII Sentiment Survey published on December 4, 2025. ([insights.aaii.com](https://insights.aaii.com/p/december-4-2025-aaii-sentiment-survey?utm_source=openai)) The narrative also references recent market performance, such as the Invesco QQQ Trust returning about 22% as of December 11, 2025, which is plausible given the strong performance of technology stocks. The language and tone are consistent with financial reporting, and there are no signs of sensationalism or inconsistency.
Overall assessment
Verdict (FAIL, OPEN, PASS): PASS
Confidence (LOW, MEDIUM, HIGH): HIGH
Summary:
The narrative presents current data from the AAII Sentiment Survey, with accurate figures and consistent language. While similar topics have been covered recently, the content is fresh and original. The reliance on a single source for sentiment data is noted, but the information is plausible and aligns with other reputable sources.