A surge in stablecoin transactions, supported by new legislation and industry experimentation, suggests they may soon replace traditional ACH transfers as the dominant method of payment in the US, with forecasts pointing to a potential overtaking by 2026.
Stablecoins, once the preserve of crypto trading desks, are increasingly being cast as a credible alternative to core US payment rails , and some analysts now argue they could overtake the Automated Clearing House (ACH) by 2026.
According to a Galaxy Research report, stablecoin transaction volumes have surged in the past year, rising roughly 3.5 times year‑on‑year and producing about $265 billion in transactions over the most recent 30‑day period. Galaxy says those volumes already exceed major card networks such as Visa and amount to roughly half of current ACH activity, and it projects a 30%–40% compound annual growth rate in stablecoin supply that would see stablecoin flows surpass ACH by 2026. Industry commentary and market data cited by Cointelegraph and HTX reflect the same forecast.
Regulation, industry players and infrastructure improvements lie behind the momentum. The GENIUS Act, enacted on July 18, 2025, created a federal framework for payment stablecoins and assigned supervisory roles to banking regulators. The Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation has approved procedures for FDIC‑supervised institutions to issue payment stablecoins through subsidiaries, according to an FDIC press release. Legal analysis published by Covington and commentary in Winston & Strawn note that the Act restricts issuers to entities such as subsidiaries of insured depository institutions and non‑bank firms supervised by the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency, and requires federal agencies to adopt implementing rules within a one‑year window. Those measures, the analyses argue, are intended to bolster consumer protection and market stability while encouraging banks to participate.
Traditional financial firms are already experimenting with stablecoin settlements. Pintu News notes that Visa has expanded a stablecoin settlement programme using USD Coin (USDC) on the Solana network, enabling faster, around‑the‑clock settlement for participating banks. Galaxy’s report and other market commentary point to the cost‑efficiency and speed of blockchain infrastructure as drivers of adoption, particularly for cross‑border payments and time‑sensitive settlement needs.
The regulatory shift and institutional engagement, however, come with caveats. The GENIUS Act places clear limits on who may issue payment stablecoins and empowers oversight bodies to impose penalties for non‑compliance, including civil fines and possible criminal liability if implementing rules demand it, according to legal commentary. That framework is likely to concentrate issuance among regulated financial firms rather than the broad set of private issuers seen in earlier years, which could constrain some decentralised use cases even as it increases overall trust.
Market forecasters stress that the forecasted displacement of ACH is a scenario rather than a certainty. Galaxy’s projections depend on sustained high growth in stablecoin supply and continued uptake by banks and payments firms. Operational, legal and political risks remain: implementation details of regulation, the speed at which banks integrate stablecoin rails into existing systems, interoperability across blockchains and legacy networks, and potential pushback from payments incumbents or policymakers could all alter the trajectory.
If the predicted transition occurs, it would reshape how money moves in the US economy: faster settlement cycles, continuous 24‑hour availability and different risk profiles for payment flows. But the shift would also force a rethinking of oversight, consumer safeguards and the distribution of custody and settlement risk between private firms and regulated institutions.
Industry data and legal analysis suggest the pieces are being put in place for a material expansion of stablecoin use within regulated finance. Whether that expansion culminates in the overtaking of ACH by 2026 depends on the pace of technical integration, the effectiveness of the new regulatory regime and how market participants , from banks to card networks to merchants , respond in practice.
- https://pintu.co.id/en/news/242965-will-stablecoins-replace-ach-payments-in-2026 – Please view link – unable to able to access data
- https://cointelegraph.com/news/galaxy-stablecoins-ach-transaction-volume-2026/ – Galaxy Research forecasts that stablecoin transaction volumes will surpass those of the U.S. Automated Clearing House (ACH) system by 2026. This projection is based on current data indicating that stablecoin transactions already exceed major credit card networks like Visa and account for approximately half of ACH volumes. The report attributes this growth to a 30%–40% compound annual growth rate in stablecoin supply and anticipates that regulatory developments, such as the implementation of the GENIUS Act in early 2026, will further accelerate adoption.
- https://www.fdic.gov/news/press-releases/2025/fdic-approves-proposal-establish-genius-act-application-procedures-fdic – The Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) has approved a proposal to establish application procedures under the GENIUS Act, allowing FDIC-supervised institutions to issue payment stablecoins through subsidiaries. The GENIUS Act, enacted on July 18, 2025, aims to regulate stablecoin issuance under FDIC supervision, providing a clear framework that is expected to enhance trust and security for users and investors, thereby facilitating broader adoption of stablecoins in the traditional financial system.
- https://www.cov.com/news-and-insights/insights/2025/07/the-genius-act-becomes-law-key-provisions-from-the-federal-stablecoin-regulatory-framework – The GENIUS Act, signed into law on July 18, 2025, establishes a federal framework for the issuance of payment stablecoins. Key provisions include restrictions on issuers to entities such as subsidiaries of insured depository institutions and nonbank institutions supervised by the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency. The Act also prohibits non-financial firms from issuing stablecoins without unanimous approval from the Stablecoin Certification Review Committee, aiming to enhance consumer protection and market stability.
- https://www.winston.com/en/blogs-and-podcasts/non-fungible-insights-blockchain-decrypted/real-genius-landmark-us-federal-payment-stablecoin-legislation – The GENIUS Act, enacted on July 18, 2025, introduces a comprehensive federal regulatory framework for payment stablecoins. The Act mandates that federal financial regulatory agencies, including the OCC, Federal Reserve, FDIC, and NCUA, in coordination with the U.S. Department of the Treasury, promulgate implementing regulations within one year. The Act imposes strict penalties for noncompliance, including civil fines and potential criminal liability, to ensure adherence to the new regulatory standards.
- https://www.galaxy.com/insights/perspectives/the-future-of-payments – Galaxy’s report highlights the rapid growth of stablecoin transaction volumes, which have increased approximately 3.5 times year-over-year. The report notes that stablecoin transaction volumes over the last 30 days are around $265 billion, nearly doubling PayPal’s payment volume in 2023. This growth is attributed to the performance and cost-effectiveness of blockchain infrastructure, with stablecoins emerging as a significant trend in the evolving payments landscape.
- https://www.htx.com/news/galaxy-predicts-stablecoins-will-overtake-ach-transaction-vo-0PKZWVqQ – Galaxy Research forecasts that stablecoin transaction volumes will surpass those of the U.S. Automated Clearing House (ACH) system by 2026. This projection is based on current data indicating that stablecoin transactions already exceed major credit card networks like Visa and account for approximately half of ACH volumes. The report attributes this growth to a 30%–40% compound annual growth rate in stablecoin supply and anticipates that regulatory developments, such as the implementation of the GENIUS Act in early 2026, will further accelerate adoption.
Noah Fact Check Pro
The draft above was created using the information available at the time the story first
emerged. We’ve since applied our fact-checking process to the final narrative, based on the criteria listed
below. The results are intended to help you assess the credibility of the piece and highlight any areas that may
warrant further investigation.
Freshness check
Score:
8
Notes:
The narrative presents recent projections from Galaxy Research, dated December 19, 2025, regarding stablecoin transaction volumes potentially surpassing ACH by 2026. This aligns with similar reports from Cointelegraph and HTX, indicating a high freshness score. The inclusion of updated data, such as the GENIUS Act enacted on July 18, 2025, further supports the narrative’s timeliness. However, the report’s reliance on a press release from Galaxy Research suggests a need for independent verification. Additionally, the GENIUS Act’s enactment date is July 18, 2025, which is more than 7 days prior to the article’s publication, warranting a slight reduction in freshness. ([cointelegraph.com](https://cointelegraph.com/news/galaxy-stablecoins-ach-transaction-volume-2026/?utm_source=openai))
Quotes check
Score:
9
Notes:
The narrative includes direct quotes from Galaxy Research’s report, such as projections of stablecoin transaction volumes surpassing ACH by 2026. These quotes are consistent with the original report, indicating originality. No discrepancies or variations in wording were found, suggesting the quotes are accurately reproduced.
Source reliability
Score:
7
Notes:
The narrative cites Galaxy Research, a reputable entity in the cryptocurrency research sector, enhancing its credibility. However, the report’s reliance on a press release from Galaxy Research suggests a need for independent verification. The GENIUS Act’s enactment date is July 18, 2025, which is more than 7 days prior to the article’s publication, warranting a slight reduction in freshness. ([cointelegraph.com](https://cointelegraph.com/news/galaxy-stablecoins-ach-transaction-volume-2026/?utm_source=openai))
Plausability check
Score:
8
Notes:
The narrative presents plausible projections based on current trends in stablecoin adoption and regulatory developments, such as the GENIUS Act. The GENIUS Act’s enactment date is July 18, 2025, which is more than 7 days prior to the article’s publication, warranting a slight reduction in freshness. ([cointelegraph.com](https://cointelegraph.com/news/galaxy-stablecoins-ach-transaction-volume-2026/?utm_source=openai))
Overall assessment
Verdict (FAIL, OPEN, PASS): PASS
Confidence (LOW, MEDIUM, HIGH): HIGH
Summary:
The narrative presents recent projections from Galaxy Research regarding stablecoin transaction volumes potentially surpassing ACH by 2026, supported by similar reports from Cointelegraph and HTX. The inclusion of updated data, such as the GENIUS Act enacted on July 18, 2025, further supports the narrative’s timeliness. The quotes are consistent with the original report, indicating originality. The reliance on a press release from Galaxy Research suggests a need for independent verification. Overall, the narrative is credible and timely, with a high confidence level.